KwaZulu-Natal Environmental Affairs MEC Mrs Lydia Johnson on impact of climate change in pre-COP17 summit, ICC, Durban

Minister of Water and Environmental Affairs: Mrs Edna Molewa
Honourable Premier of KZN: Dr Zweli Mkhize
Ethekwini Mayor: Cllr James Nxumalo
Consul Generals present here today
Members of the Executive Council
MPLs Cllrs Amakhosi
Civil society groups and other stakeholders
Members of the media
Ladies and gentleman

It is with a great sense of honour that I stand before you this morning to participate in a programme designed to nurture our ailing environment back to life through a programme Climate Change Impact Management.

In order to create awareness in the forthcoming COP17, pre-COP17 seminars were held at Empangeni, Newcastle and Durban on 8, 14 and 20 June 2011 respectively. The aim of the seminars was to create awareness amongst stakeholders on the impacts of climate change and to also inform participants of the forthcoming 17th edition of the Conference of the Parties (COP17) to be held in Durban from 29 November to 9 December 2011.

The seminars were held under the theme ‘Our World in Our Hands’ with four sub- themes: Managing and Responding to Impacts of Climate Change, Sustainable Livelihoods and Climate Change, Green Economy, and Honouring our National Commitment.

Lead speakers were sourced from the industries, universities, non-governmental organisations (NGO) and government departments.

Total attendees at the three seminars numbered over 1000 and were made up of people from Community Based Organisations, traditional leadership sector, government departments, industries, academia, students, NGOs, etc.

After lead paper presentations, the delegates broke into four sector-based commissions.

Short presentations were made at each of the commissions to stimulate discussion and to answer the following questions:

The seminars acknowledged the threats posed by climate change which some are already observing in their localities. For instance, the delays of the onset of rains impacts on agriculture and more frequent occurrence of floods and drought are also being observed.

The seminars agreed that the government and all stakeholders have parts to play in arresting global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This is by promoting cleaner means of production, transportation, energy-generation and the use of more efficient machineries. The populace needs to change its energy-wasteful lifestyles.

The seminars welcome the Conference of parties (COP17) on our shore, and would use it to highlight our initiatives on Renewable Energy and Indigenous Knowledge in combating the impacts of climate change.

The seminars pronounced their climate action status, to save and create life by harmonising the relationship between people and the environment. To this effect, the seminars supported the planting of 40 trees to offset the 15 tonnes of carbon dioxide emitted by delegates in the course of travelling to and from the seminar venues. The seminars resolved to act local (individual) to effect combat climate change impacts.

This pre-COP17 Summit of today marks the ultimate effort to bring all our thoughts together to ensure a successful hosting of COP17 in our province.

1. What is climate change?

Climate change is the natural cycle through which the earth and its atmosphere are going to accommodate the change in the amount of energy received from the sun. The climate goes through warm and cold periods, taking hundreds of years to complete one cycle.

Changes in temperature also influence the rainfall, but the biosphere are able to adapt to a changing climate if these changes take place over centuries. Unfortunately, human intervention is currently causing the climate to change too fast. Plants and animals may not be able to adapt as quickly to this "rapid" climate change as humans can, and therefore the whole ecosystem is in danger.

2. What causes climate change?

The global climate system is driven by energy from the sun. Several gases in the atmosphere act to trap the energy from the sun, thus warming the earth. These gases are called greenhouse gases and the process is the greenhouse effect. Without this, there would be no life on earth. Human activities over the last 200 years, particularly the burning of fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas) and the clearing of forests, have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

This is likely to lead to more solar radiation being trapped, which in turn will lead to the earth's surface warming up - called the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Global climate varies naturally, but scientists agree that rising concentration of anthropogenic produced greenhouse gases (GHG’s) in the atmosphere are leading to changes in the atmosphere. The effects of Climate Change have already been observed and scientific findings indicate that precautionary and prompt action is necessary. For instance, Climate models predict that the mean air temperature over South Africa will increase with an estimated 2°C over the next century.

3. What can we do to slow the process down?

The enhanced greenhouse effect can be slowed down by following two guidelines: (1) Increase sinks and (2) decrease sources of greenhouse gases. A sink is a process which removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

For example: growing a tree where one did not previously exist provides a sink for carbon dioxide, because the tree “extracts" carbon dioxide for photosynthesis. A source is a place or activity from which greenhouse gases are emitted. This can be a process such as coal burning or a location such as cultivated fields.

4. Observable impacts of climate change in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN)

While climate change is a global problem, it is also a local problem with serious impact.

4.1. Noticeable changes in climate trends are being observed in the KZN Province. For instance, warming trends in the north-eastern parts of the province, over the Midlands of KwaZulu-Natal and over the KwaZulu-Natal south coast. Wetting trends over the region, especially during February, have also been observed.

4.2. KwaZulu-Natal has the highest flood hazard in South Africa. The south coast of KwaZulu-Natal is the most exposed and vulnerable area.

4.3. The increase in extreme weather events is already affecting the province’s people and economy negatively. An increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events is expected and this will exacerbate the situation.

4.4. There have been measurable changes in sea level rise in KwaZulu-Natal and the effect of sea-level rise has already started to manifest itself through coastal erosion. A continuation of the existing situation and the added effects of potential climate change is a high risk for the province. The sea level rise in Durban has been 2.7mm/year in 33 years;

4.5. Climate projections for KwaZulu-Natal indicate continued warming and changes in precipitation patterns.

5. Some impacted sectors

I will now proceed to give some examples:

5.1. Cropping and livestock farming

Slightly warmer temperatures have lead to a reduction in maize and wheat yields.

The drier part of KZN is used for grazing by cattle, sheep and wildlife. Higher carbon dioxide will lead to less protein in the grass, which will reduce any benefit resulting from increased plant growth. Less rainfall would lead to proportionately less animal production.

5.2. Agro-Forestry

The forestry industry could be impacted by a decrease in rainfall. However, wide scale cutting of trees in the forests compromises forests acting as sinks. A wide scale cutting of trees can reduce carbon sink and promote soil erosion.

5.3. The coastal zone

If the warming of ocean water were to continue unabated, the polar icecaps will melt and the sea level will rise. The consequence of a small sea level rise in KZN will alter the coastline. The experience of coastal damage at Ballito Bay area in 2007 is still fresh in our memory.

There were unprecedented levels of coastal erosion and associated property damage that occurred over a distance of 350 kilometres of the KwaZulu-Natal coastline due to tidal surges and storm events during March of that year.

5.4. Outbreak of fires

The prevalence of dry arid conditions both in the northern regions and upper midlands in KZN lends itself to outbreaks of fires, especially during the winter periods. The fires that are being experienced are a burden to the economy; health; environment and the ecosystems

The Carbon Dioxide emissions will have an alarming effect in 10 to 15 years’ time.

5.5. Floods

The Mvoti to Umzimkulu Water Management Area; which includes Durban/eThekwini Metro and the south coast towns of Pennington, Scotburgh, Port Shepstone and Margate was subjected to the most flood events.

Beach Erosion - Umkomaas 2007
Flooding - South Coast 2007

5.6. Frequent occurrence of drought

Drought is a common occurrence in KwaZulu-Natal, as in all climatic areas of South Africa at all times of the year with different intensity, spatial extension and duration. In South Africa, drought is characterised by rainfall of about 60% of world annual mean.

The occurrences of periodic drought events are natural and necessary in maintaining natural systems. However, man’s activities are influencing the frequency and intensity of drought. The most severe and widespread drought in South Africa since 1900 occurred in 1983, followed by an abnormal lingering drought in the early 1990’s. In KwaZulu-Natal, this drought peaked in 1992/1993 resulting in water shortfall.

5.7. Environmental pollution

The projected increases in the transportation sector are determined by economic growth and population. Tail pipe emissions from vehicles, both petrol and diesel driven vehicle contributes to Green House Gas Emissions which impacts adversely on Climate Change.

Some factors considered in the transportation sector are the levy of carbon tax; energy efficiency improvements and travel demand management.

The emissions of Green House gases from this sector are considered to be the highest volumes of carbon dioxide. The recently promulgated National Environmental Air Quality Act regulates the emissions of gases through the Atmospheric Emission Licence process and the enforcement of abatement technologies to reduce the anthropogenic (man-made) gases in to the atmosphere and so as to reduce the impacts of climate change.

Pollution from a refinery

6. Conclusion

Change in lifestyles can go a long way to manage the impacts of climate change. It is known that job opportunities can be generated through greening our activities even more than from conventional working structure. For instance, new industries for the manufacturing renewable energy equipment and platforms.

It is apparent that we need to make a commitment to save humanity by managing the environment in a more responsible manner.

Ladies and gentlemen, I thank you for your support and I solicit your contribution in crafting implementable resolutions at the end of this summit.

Thank you