National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) advisory on the 2015/16 summer season statement from Climate Change and Disaster Management
I. Introduction
In October, below normal rainfall was received continuing into November, except for the southern coastal areas where it was above normal. During the first ten days of December, rainfall remained below normal countrywide but above normal in parts of KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Limpopo. For the season July to November 2015, below normal rainfall was received but above normal over southern coastal areas.
II. Current Conditions
Conditions in provinces
Drought continues in many provinces. Veld and livestock conditions are poor in the majority of areas. Irrigated crops are under stress due to lack of sufficient water and high temperatures. Many dry-land farmers could not begin planting in most areas due to lack of soil moisture.
Veld fires were reported in Free State, Limpopo, Northern Cape, North West, Mpumalanga and Western Cape. There were severe thunderstorms that caused damages in Gauteng, Limpopo and Free State. Livestock mortalities were reported in KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, North West and Free State. The level of major dams is low in all provinces as compared to the 2014 levels during the same period.
III. Market Information
Major grain commodities
According to FNB, white maize prices advanced further as planting is delayed by lack of rain in some of the producing areas. Weather plays a pivotal role in price direction with more rains desperately needed to commence with planting.
Wheat prices advanced slightly. The renewed weakness in the Rand/US dollar exchange rate will continue to provide support for the wheat market, limiting downside risk. Oilseed prices rallied further as concerns over production conditions continued. The weather will continue to play a central role with planting delayed.
Livestock domestic markets
FNB indicated that the domestic beef market maintained a firmer trend across most categories on the back of improved demand. Recent rains have helped in reviving pastures but conditions in some areas remain poor forcing producers to source feed. The lamb and mutton markets posted further gains supported by better uptake on markets.
Supply outlook remains bearish due to the worst drought in decades. Pork and baconer prices trended firmer supported by good demand. In the short to medium term prices are expected to trend slighly upwards due to increased seasonal demands. Poultry prices remained firm supported by improved uptake across markets. The medium term outlook for prices remains bearish.
VI. SADC Region
The Famine Early Warning System Network for October 2015 to March 2016 states that the onset of the seasonal rains is late in northeastern South Africa and neighboring Lesotho, southern parts of Angola, Swaziland, and in western areas of Zambia. For most countries in the region, seasonal rains typically begin in November.
National and international forecasts predict low rainfall during the October to December period, which could lead to an erratic or delayed start to rainfall. The ongoing El Niño is forecast to continue until mid-2016, increasing regional concerns that several countries will experience below-average rainfall during the season.
Poor households in maize deficit areas are well into the lean period and have been relying on market purchases for an extended period this season. Staple food prices in several countries continue to increase, reducing poor household purchasing power. Humanitarian assistance began in parts of Zimbabwe, but has not started in Malawi. Informal trade flows between Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa are strong.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes are currently taking place in Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar. Poor households in cereal deficit areas have depleted their own food production stocks and are facing limited labour opportunities. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue in these countries through March 2016 in the absence of humanitarian assistance. Some areas in Zimbabwe will improve slightly and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the presence of humanitarian assistance.
[The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a set of standardized tools that aims at providing a "common currency" for classifying the severity and magnitude of food insecurity.]
V. Rainfall and Temperature Forecast
Rainfall is anticipated to be below normal in most areas for the remainder of summer and into autumn. Temperatures are anticipated to be above normal. Users are encouraged to continually check updates i.e. seasonal forecasts and utilize 7 day weather forecasts for short term planning.
VII. Conclusions and Recommendations
Drought/very dry conditions continue to be reported in most provinces. The seasonal forecast favours below normal rainfall in most provinces. Maximum temperatures are anticipated to be above normal. With the seasonal forecast in mind, and the current drought/very dry conditions in provinces, farmers are advised to continue to approach the season with extra caution.
Dry-land farmers who are still planning to plant should wait for sufficient moisture before planting, and still plant within the planting window. Also, they should consider drought tolerant and short season cultivars including sorghum where possible.
Irrigation farmers should reduce the planting area in line with water restrictions in their areas and also consider the below normal rainfall forecast. Farmers should follow the weather and climate forecast regularly so as to make informed decisions. Water restrictions have been implemented in some provinces hence, water and other resources need to continually be conserved in accordance with the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act 1983, (Act No. 43 of 1983).
Livestock must continually be kept in line with carrying capacity of the veld and should be provided with additional feed including licks to give sufficient nutrition. Farmers are advised to continue to reduce livestock to protect the limited grazing i.e. selling of animals. Veld fires have been reported in many provinces and the risk remains high for conditions conducive for veld fires as the veld is dry. Farmers are encouraged to maintain firebreaks in winter and summer rainfall areas and adhere to veld fire warnings. Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail as well as heat waves are likely to re-occur and therefore measures to combat these should remain in place. Isolated localised flooding is also possible in summer rainfall areas; precautionary measures for these should be in place.
Challenges of communication facilities in most districts in the provinces inhibit both dissemination and access to information and thus undermining the effectiveness of an Early Warning System.
Continuous support to Early Warning Committee and National Agro-meteorological Committee members in provinces will ensure the effective dissemination of early warning information as an integral component of an effective Early Warning System in support of disaster risk reduction.
Participation in the established structures/study groups and Fire Protection Associations among farming communities will encourage knowledge sharing, good farming practices as well as effective implementation of the disaster risk reduction measures. Reporting of disaster risk issues to the local office including diseases and pests outbreak will ensure immediate attention and controlling of incidences.
Sectoral programmes should consider the advisory information in planning their activities.
The following form part of the recommendations in the full advisory for disaster risk reduction:
- Precautionary measure for very dry conditions.
- Contingency plans for heat stress.
DAFF will continue to revisit the provinces in support of their monitoring and evaluation of the agricultural conditions.
For a complete advisory, visit the DAFF website or contact CCDM for more information: Tel: 012 309 5722 or Fax: 012 309 5878.
