Many areas of the country are still experiencing drought from the 2015/16 summer, although in some provinces the drought began before then. Generally, the veld remains poor whereas livestock is in poor condition but reasonable in areas where there were interventions, e.g. provision of feed and licks. Winter crops are in reasonable to good conditions. Farm dams have dried up in most areas and the levels of major dams are low in all provinces as compared to the previous season. Water restrictions have been implemented in several provinces.
The September 2016 update issued by the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET) indicates that, while humanitarian assistance is ongoing in parts of Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Malawi, funding constraints continue to affect current coverage and is anticipated to further limit coverage in these countries after December. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes will likely continue in parts of Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Malawi, Lesotho and Mozambique. Some areas will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, in the presence of assistance. In the absence of adequate humanitarian assistance, IPC Phase 3 outcomes are expected to continue through January in most affected countries.
However, areas in southern Madagascar that have experienced 2-3 seasons of consecutive drought will likely experience a surge in households experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes between October and January. [The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a set of standardised tools that aim at providing a "common currency" for classifying the severity and magnitude of food insecurity].
FEWS-NET further states that in August, the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) announced a seasonal forecast for normal to above normal rainfall for most parts of the region during the October-December period, with the exception of the northern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Tanzania, north-western Angola, northern Mozambique and eastern Madagascar, which are expected to receive normal to below normal rainfall during this period.
During the January-March period, similar rainfall conditions are expected, except normal to below normal rainfall is expected for southern Zimbabwe and Mozambique and northern South Africa. Staple supplies on markets in most affected countries remain limited. Food prices continue to rise and for Mozambique and Malawi, maize prices are double than both last year and the five-year average. Even in surplus countries, including Zambia and Tanzania, maize prices are higher than both last year and five-year average. However, maize prices in Zimbabwe remain relatively stable in comparison to the previous year’s prices and are about 30% above the five-year average.
According to the seasonal forecast issued by the South African Weather Service dated 30 September, rainfall is uncertain during late spring. Towards mid-summer the rainfall is expected to be above normal but the level of uncertainty remains high with marginal confidence. Mostly warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected during late-spring to mid-summer.
Dryland summer crop farmers should wait for sufficient moisture before planting and stay within the normal planting window. They are also advised to be conservative in their planting, i.e. planting density/cultivar/area being planted. In addition, they should consider drought-tolerant cultivars, including sorghum and maize where possible. Irrigation farmers should reduce the planting area in line with water restrictions in their areas. Farmers should follow the weather and climate forecast regularly so as to make informed decisions.
Livestock farmers are advised to continue to have precautionary measures in place. These include provision of additional feed such as relevant licks, livestock reduction in accordance with available grazing, provision of enough water points on the farm where possible, as well as shelter during bad weather conditions. The risk remains high for conditions conducive for veld fires as the veld is dry in areas with sufficient biomass. Farmers are encouraged to maintain firebreaks and adhere to veld fire warnings. Episodes of localised flooding resulting from thunderstorms are likely and measures should be in place. Heat waves have been reported in some areas and are likely to reoccur. Therefore, measures to combat these should be in place.
Farmers are encouraged to implement measures provided in the early warning information issued such as:
- Using grey water where possible
- Harvesting water during rainy days
- Scheduling irrigation plans in accordance with water restrictions and irrigating in the early morning or late afternoon
- Proper veld management practices to preserve agricultural resources.
For media enquiries and further information please contact:
Mr. Steve Galane
Tel: 012 319 7960
Cell: 083 635 7346
E-mail: SteveGAL@daff.gov.za
