National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) Advisory on the 2016 winter season
1. Introduction
In March, near normal to below normal rainfall was received over the central and western parts of the country, elsewhere it was above normal. In April, rainfall increased over the central parts and decreased in the northern parts as well as coastal areas.
Over the central parts it was above normal but near normal to below normal elsewhere. At the beginning of May and mid-May, rainfall was above normal in many areas. For the season July 2015 to April 2016, below normal rainfall was received with patches of above normal mainly in the Northern Cape, Eastern Cape and Western Cape Provinces.
2. Current conditions
Conditions in provinces
The veld improved in some areas due the rain received. On the other hand, livestock is improving due to interventions, for example, provision of fodder and mineral licks. Cases of Armyworm were reported in KwaZulu-Natal, and in the Eastern Cape New Castle Disease and Non-Pathogenic Avian Influenza were reported. The levels of major dams in the majority of provinces are lower as compared to the previous year during the same period.
3. Market information
Major grain commodities
ABSA stated that maize prices are higher and in Southern Africa there is a significant shortage of maize which is expected to boost imports in the coming months. It is expected that harvesting will weigh on the market. Wheat prices traded higher and it is expected that the weaker rand will support prices. Soybean and sunflower prices were higher and prices are expected to soften.
Livestock domestic markets
According to ABSA, class A beef prices are lower while class C prices are higher. Prices are expected to be supported in the next few months due to the aftermath of the drought. Prices normally start to pick up again in August towards the end of the year and are expected to remain soft. Mutton prices declined, and improved demand during month end might be supportive to prices.
It seems supply exceeds demand which decreases market prices. Pork market prices remained steady and cheaper, proteins like pork over beef and mutton might support prices. Prices are expected to trade sideways to lower due to seasonality.
4. SADC region
The FEWS-NET report issued in May 2016 indicates that as the lean season comes to an end, the availability of regional maize supplies has improved slightly during the ongoing harvest period in several countries. At the national level, this improvement is more pronounced in Zambia and Tanzania; while in southern Mozambique and Zimbabwe maize supplies are well below average because of the poor national 2015/16 harvest.
In May, both Zambia and South Africa continued exporting to grain deficit countries, but volumes from Zambia have reduced in comparison to previous months.
Usually food prices decrease during this time of the year. However, this year maize grain price trends are mixed across the region because of below-average production due to the El Niño-induced drought. Prices in Zambia, northern and central Mozambique, as well as parts of northern Malawi are decreasing. However, in southern Zimbabwe and Mozambique maize grain prices are either stable or atypically increasing.
The prices in both Malawi and Mozambique are some of the highest in the region and remain substantially higher than the previous year and the five-year average levels.
FEW-NET continued to indicate that this year’s poor harvest is affecting household access to cash and in-kind payments that are usually earned through harvesting labor activities during this time. The widespread drought that affected crop production across the region has also significantly affected better-off households who normally provide labor opportunities for poor households in most countries in the region.
This is currently depressing income earnings by poor households during a time of the year when households are atypically relying on market purchases for their staple foods.
La Niña conditions are expected for the start of the 2016/17 agriculture season. Although initial model forecasts suggest that precipitation for the region will be near average for October-December, La Niña in southern Africa is usually associated with above-average rainfall for December-March. The Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) must be monitored closely as it can mitigate or amplify the impact of La Niña in the region.
5. Rainfall and temperature forecast
Rainfall is anticipated to be above normal over the western and north-eastern parts of the country for the winter season although certainty and confidence are low. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are anticipated to be above normal.
6. Conclusions and recommendations
Drought continues in provinces with water restrictions in place. The drought will be exacerbated by the normal dry winter conditions, especially in summer rainfall areas. The seasonal forecast favours above normal rainfall in some winter rainfall areas albeit the certainty and confidence are low.
With the seasonal forecast in mind, and the current drought, farmers are advised to continue to conserve water and other resources in accordance with the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act 1983, (Act No. 43 of 1983).
The current conditions are not favorable for winter crops as the level of dams are still low for irrigation. Farmers are also encouraged to take that into consideration when choosing crop varieties amongst other choices prior planting.
Although livestock is recovering in many areas, conditions of both grazing and livestock are expected to deteriorate during winter. Precautionary measures such as provision of additional feed including relevant licks, livestock reduction in accordance with available grazing, provision of enough water points in the farm as well as shelter during bad weather conditions need to be put in place.
The risk remains high for conditions conducive for veld fires as the veld is dry.
Farmers are encouraged to maintain firebreaks in all areas and adhere to veld fire warnings. Episodes of cold spells and localised flooding resulting from frontal systems are likely during winter and measures should be in place. Farmers are encouraged to implement measures provided in the early warning information issued.
Challenges of communication facilities in most districts in the provinces inhibit both dissemination and access to information and thus undermining the effectiveness of an Early Warning System.
Continuous support to Early Warning Committee and National Agro-meteorological Committee members in provinces will ensure the effective dissemination of early warning information as an integral component of an effective Early Warning System in support of disaster risk reduction.
Participation in the established structures/study groups and Fire Protection Associations among farming communities will encourage knowledge sharing, good farming practices as well as effective implementation of the disaster risk reduction measures. Reporting of disaster risk issues to the local office including diseases and pests outbreak will ensure immediate attention and controlling of incidences.
Sectoral programmes should consider the advisory information in planning their activities.
The following form part of the recommendations in the full advisory for disaster risk reduction:
- Precautionary measure for very dry conditions.
- Contingency plans for very cold conditions.
Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) will continue to revisit the provinces in support of their monitoring and evaluation of the agricultural conditions.
For a complete advisory, visit the DAFF website www.daff.gov.za or contact CCDM for more information:
Tel: 012 309 5722
Fax: 012 309 5878
