The Inter-Ministerial Committee on Energy (IMC) met on Monday (4 October) to consider the country’s electricity master plan known as the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2010. The IMC has accordingly approved that the draft IRP 2010 be released for public comment with effect from today (Thursday, 7 October).
Please note the full Draft IRP 2010 is still being edited for release and should be ready for release on Friday, 8 October. For release today are the:
- Executive Summary of the IRP 2010 and,
- Medium Term Risk Mitigation Plan (MTRM) for Electricity in South Africa - 2010 to 2016.
The Integrated Resource Plan is a 20 year electricity capacity plan. It aims to provide an indication of the country’s projected future electricity demand, how this demand could be met and what it could cost to do so. It is not a plan that deals with the overall energy needs of the country nor does it deal with the wider infrastructure plan for the country. It is a key input into those plans and it is envisaged that there will be an interactive process in developing these plans. The IRP caters for a cone of demand and flexibility within reason to changes in assumptions with regard to the demand and supply equation.
In this draft government is seeking to balance the following key parameters:
- Carbon emissions
- Cost of electricity production
- Security of electricity supply
- Creation of sustainable jobs
- Water usage
Together with the release of the draft IRP2010, which is a long-term plan, there will also be made available a document detailing the short to medium term interventions that will be put in place to ensure the security of electricity supply against the backdrop of a very tight reserve margin. This Medium Term Risk Mitigation document will be applicable for the period from 2010 to 2017.
Scenarios
In developing the draft report, the inter-departmental task team considered the following key scenarios:
1. Base Case 0.0 – which only considers the direct costs of each technology.
a. Base Case 0.1 – which models the cancellation of Kusile power station.
b. Base Case 0.2 –which considers a delay in the construction of Medupi and Kusile power stations.
2. Emission Limit 1.0 (EM1) – which imposes an annual emission limit of 275 MT of carbon dioxide.
a. Emission Limit 1.1 – As above with the additional consideration of the cancellation of Kusile power station.
3. Emission Limit 2.0 (EM2) which imposes an emission limit of 275 MT of carbon dioxide by 2025 but allows emissions to go to higher levels prior to 2025.
a. Emission Limit 2.1 - As above with the additional consideration of the cancellation of Kusile power station.
4. Emission Limit 3.0 (EM3) which imposes a tighter emission limit of 220 MT from 2010.
a. Emission Limit 3.1 - As above with the additional consideration of the cancellation of Kusile power station.
5. Carbon Tax 0.0 (CT) – which imposes carbon taxes escalated to 2010 rands as contained in the LTMS documents.
a. Carbon Tax 0.1 - As above with the additional consideration of the cancellation of Kusile power station.
The following scenarios were also considered in order to enhance consideration of the current government’s priorities in the IRP 2010:
1. Regional Development 0.0 (RD) – which considers a broader range of regional supply options.
a. Regional Development 0.1 - As above with the additional consideration of the cancellation of Kusile power station.
2. Enhanced DSM 0.0 (EDSM) – which imposes an additional demand side management programme of 6 TWhrs by 2015.
a. Enhanced DSM 0.1 - As above with the additional consideration of the cancellation of Kusile power station.
3. Balanced Scenario – Based on initial discussions within government.
4. Revised Balanced Scenario – Based on workshops with the interdepartmental task team.
All of the above scenarios are detailed in the draft report for public comment.
Results/outcomes
Central to the development of IRP 2010 is the vexing question of “cost of electricity production” versus the country’s objective of limiting carbon emissions. To this extent, it should be noted that finding a balance between these two parameters is not easy considering that there are unknowns, including the extent of financial incentives necessary to support the transition to a low carbon economy.
The draft IRP 2010 is very alive to this challenge, hence its emphasis on finding a balance between minimal financial “cost of electricity production” and the low carbon emission that is being proposed as a country plan. This scenario is referred to as the “Revised Balanced Scenario”.
This scenario includes the current committed projects under the IRP 1 and more renewable energy, beyond the current 10 000 GWh by 2013 target, is featured to some extent.
The summary of the Balanced Scenario country electrical energy mix by 2030 is as follows:
- 48% Baseload Coal
- 14% Baseload Nuclear
- 16% Renewable Energy (dispatchable)
- 9% Peaking Open Cycle Gas Turbine
- 6% Peaking Pump Storage
- 5% Mid-merit Gas
- 2% Baseload Import Hydro.
Further work
The Inter-Ministerial Committee on Energy has requested that the technical IRP 2010 team do more work, especially on the possibility of incorporating the benefits of carbon capture and storage (CCS) on all future coal fired power stations in the model. This will ensure that the negative impact of carbon emissions is minimised.
The current allocation of renewable energy technologies will also be investigated in more detail to better understand their capabilities and short-comings. The intention is to hold a plenary session with NERSA’s participation and thereafter take the IRP 2010 proposal to Cabinet and ultimately promulgate it by year end.In this regard, The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) may issue licences according to the provisions contained in the final IRP document and will be in a position to provide an indication of the long term electricity price path.This will result in the execution of the long awaited build programme..
