The South African Police Service has noted various media reports regarding the reliability of crime statistics.
When we released the latest crime statistics on 19 September 2013, some of the so-called analysts and experts said crime ratios were not important and alleged that we were using them to conceal the real crime situation in our country. They argued that we should rather focus on the raw figures, which we had also provided.
It is now argued by the same analysts and experts, that crime ratios are crucial and that the population estimates we used for 2011/12 crime ratios are wrong, outdated and incorrect. This is not true at all.
This false statement has also been interpreted by certain media houses to mean that crime statistics of the past two financial years cannot be trusted. Such interpretation is equally untrue.
The raw data, which is actual cases reported, is not based on population figures. Therefore one cannot conclude that the overall crime statistics should not be trusted.
Before I explain, let me just say that this is an academic debate. Which, unfortunately, only serves to confuse matters. We have a particular approach and the so-called experts and analysts also have their own approach. We don't agree on the approach and there is no policy to guide either of us. In other words, in ten years' time, the country could be subjected to the same confusing debate.
The 2011/12 crime ratios were based on a population estimate of 50, 6 million.
StatsSA released the 2011 Census results in October 2012. It showed the actual population of 2011 as 51, 7 million. Based on the formula used by StatsSA, the restated, estimated population for 2011 was shown to be 51, 6 million.
The argument is that we should have used these restated, estimated figures. This would have required us to adjust the crime ratios of 2011/12. Based on our approach, this is not necessary. It is an academic exercise. We should only apply the new population estimates, which are based on the 2011 Census results, from the 2012/13 financial period onwards.
Media enquiries:
Lieutenant General Solomon Makgale
Cell: 082 778 3718
