Near normal rainfall was received in most winter rainfall areas during winter, while the first summer rain fell in September over most provinces. Veld and livestock conditions are reasonable to poor and very poor in communal areas as result of lower than normal rainfall during the previous summer. Farmers are busy with land preparations for summer crops. The level of dams has decreased in many provinces as compared to the same period in the previous year, the lowest being Limpopo at 67%.
The September Famine Early Warning System Network report highlighted that food security is stable in most parts of southern Africa, following the main season harvests. Generally, there is a minimal food insecurity condition across the region. However, reduced harvests in some areas affected by drought or floods and above-average cereal prices, have resulted in pockets of acute food insecurity in parts of Angola, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. In these areas the lean season is expected to start early (August/September), rather than the normal starting period of October/November.
Current regional maize demand/supply projections suggest that the surpluses produced by the main maize-producing countries, namely: Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia, are just sufficient to cover the import requirements of grain deficit countries in the region if strategic grain reserves (SGRs) are replenished according to current plans.
Rainfall is anticipated to be above normal towards the end of the year, extending into the New Year over the summer rainfall areas. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal in many areas. Farmers are advised to stick to the normal planting dates and prioritise suitable cultivars. In addition, farmers are encouraged to continually check updates, i.e. seasonal forecasts and utilise seven-day weather forecasts for short-term planning.
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail as well as heat waves have been reported in some provinces. These are likely to reoccur and therefore, measures to combat these should be in place. Localised flooding is also possible in the summer rainfall areas, therefore precautionary measures for these, should be in place. In addition, various measures related to pests and diseases associated with wet conditions should be maintained.
On the other hand, resources should continually be conserved, including water, and soil moisture conservation strategies should be maintained in accordance with the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act (No. 43 of 1983). Provincial reports also indicated a shortage of grazing, therefore farmers are advised to keep the number of stock in balance with the carrying capacity and provide additional feed as well as allow full recovery/regrowth of the veld.
The Disaster Management Act (Act No 57 of 2002) urges provinces, individuals and farmers to assess and prevent or reduce the risk of disasters, using early warning information.
Enquiries:
Steve Galane
Cell: 083 635 7346
Tel: 012 319 7312
E-mail: SteveGAL@daff.gov.za
Climate advisory for the 2012/13 summer season
