The winter season saw normal to above normal rainfall over the winter rainfall areas with cold to cool temperatures. These conditions were favourable for the winter crops. The summer rainfall regions received some rainfall especially during the month of June. Livestock is in reasonable condition in most provinces except in parts of Limpopo and the Eastern Cape where it is poor due to insufficient rain. Vegetation conditions are normal throughout much of the country but lower over the eastern parts of Limpopo and parts of the Eastern Cape.
The level of dams is reasonable (above 70% in most provinces), except in the eastern parts of the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Limpopo were dams are lower. Most regions received considerable amounts of rainfall during the previous summer season; therefore there is still sufficient soil moisture.
The statement by FEWS NET, July to December 2009 mentioned that current food security conditions remain satisfactory over most parts of Southern Africa, following average to above average main season crop harvests around May and June. The most likely regional food security scenario between July and December should see a continuation of current generally food secure conditions in most areas.
In a statement to the media released by the South African Weather Service dated 9 July 2009 concerning El Niño, the forecast shows that the 2009/10 El Niño event may not be very strong. It emphasises that its intensity does not indicate how much the event will influence rainfall in Southern Africa during the summer months. In the past the relatively weak El Niño events such as those at the beginning of the 1990s were associated with intense drought over the region, while the very strong one of 1997/98 resulted in rainfall close to the average over the larger part of South Africa. Notwithstanding, El Niño events are much more often associated with drought conditions over the region than not.
Below normal rainfall is anticipated over much of the country up until early in the New Year. The conditions are expected to improve towards February 2010. Maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal. Based on the current conditions and the forecast, farmers are advised to approach this summer season with caution. Dryland farmers in the summer rainfall areas are advised to plant early and consider fast growing cultivars. Livestock numbers have to be adjusted to suit the available grazing. Although the conditions are favourable for irrigation farmers due to dam levels in most areas, water has to be conserved and farmers must always adhere to water restrictions if any and also continually observe the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act, (Act 43 of 1983). Precautionary measures should also be in place for pests and diseases. Contingency plans for heat wave conditions should be considered as above normal temperatures are forecasted.
Veld fires have been reported in some areas and the conditions favourable for their development and spread are still anticipated until rain brings relief. Therefore, measures should be in place for both dry conditions and veld fires with adherence to the National Veld and Forest Fire Act (Act No. 101 of 1998). As rain begins clearing over the winter rainfall areas, farmers in these regions should also begin placing preventative measures for veld fires.
The Disaster Management Act (Act no 57 of 2002) urges provinces, individuals and farmers to assess and prevent or reduce the risk of disasters using warning information. The complete advisory can be accessed through the provincial Departments of Agriculture offices as well as DAFF and AGIS websites, http://www.daff.gov.za and http://www.agis.agric.za respectively.
For further information contact:
Priscilla Tsotso Sehoole
Tel: 012 319 7317
Cell: 083 265 8728
Fax: 012 319 7858
E-mail: CCO@DAFF.gov.za
