The Department of Basic Education has put in place several measures to address the dropout rate in the education system. It is however important to put this matter in context.
As a department we share the very legitimate concerns that have been raised, and have been closely examining trends in the proportion of all children who successfully complete matric. This is not as simple to measure as just the pass rate, but all available data point to improvements in recent years.
Firstly, comparing grade 1 enrolments to the number passing matric 12 years later is significantly misleading. This is mainly because grade 1 enrolments are inflated due to high rates of repetition, partly owing to the participation of under aged learners. For example, there were 1 286 591 grade 1 learners enrolled in 2002 (the year that most of the class of 2013 would have started school) but only 1 111 858 grade 2 enrolments in 2003. This represents about 175 000 fewer enrolments. This is due to grade repetition and is not a result of drop-out, which is virtually zero at the end of grade 1.
Comparing grade 2 enrolments to matric passes is therefore somewhat more appropriate. However, this too is influenced to some extent by grade repetition. In fact, whichever grade one uses to calculate a type of “throughput rate”, grade repetition will mean that this statistic is lower than the true probability of a learner attaining matric. This is because while grade repetition inflates the number enrolled in any particular grade, the number passing matric is not similarly inflated because very few people re-write matric having previously passed it. It is difficult to adjust for grade repetition in calculating a throughput rate due to the unreliability of repetition data, especially prior to 2009.
Mortality also affects the calculation although to a lesser extent. Mortality statistics from administrative records indicate that about 1 000 learners die per grade per year. Therefore, this would inflate the baseline number of grade 2 enrolments by about 11 000.
The ratio of matric passes in 2013 to grade 2 enrolments in 2003 is 40.4%. This is probably an underestimate by about 3 percentage points due to repetition, mortality and the fact that supplementary National Senior Certificate (NSC) candidates are not yet included.
Importantly, this grade 2 to matric throughput rate has increased steadily in the last few years from 28.0% in 2009, to 34.2% in 2010, 37.7% in 2011, 38.2% in 2012 and 40.4% in 2013. To some extent this trend is exaggerated by the fact that grade repetition in grade 2 has been declining. Another more stable and meaningful measure of the probability of attaining a matric can be calculated using household survey data. This makes it possible to look at a specific age-cohort of the population, say 24 year olds, and see what proportion of them has matric.
Such calculations using Stats SA household survey data confirm that just over 40% of youths end up passing matric. This represents a secondary school completion rate that is still rather low relative to comparable developing countries, such as Turkey (53%) and Brazil (67%). But encouragingly, these household surveys indicate a moderately positive trend in the attainment of matric since 2002, in particular amongst females.
A long-term view of the numbers of matric passes each year is telling. Only 43 000 people passed matric in 1970. In 1990 there were 191 000 passes. By 2 000 the number had risen to 283 294. In 2013 there were 439 779 matric passes. Over the same period population growth has been moderate. For example, between 2000 and 2012 the population of 18 year olds grew by about 0.4% a year.
Despite these clearly improving trends there are still too many youths who do not reach matric and consequently lack any qualification that is well recognised in the labour market. There are two main solutions to this challenge.
Firstly, we need to keep increasing the proportion of youths that do attain matric – but crucially, this must be achieved through improving the quality of learning in earlier grades. The high rates of dropout in grades 10 and 11 are really symptomatic of the learning deficits that children accumulate in earlier grades. Although factors such as financial constraints, gang involvement and family commitments play a role in dropout, the major cause of dropout is weak learning foundations. For this reason, our interventions to improve the acquisition of foundational numeracy and literacy, especially reading acquisition, will be crucial.
The Annual National Assessments represent one key intervention aimed at strengthening the academic emphasis within primary schools.
A second part of the solution is to develop meaningful educational alternatives for those who will not achieve matric. The increasing policy focus on FET colleges, learnerships and apprenticeships, as evident in the National Development Plan for example, is therefore an important development. The forthcoming implementation of the new Curriculum and Assessment Policy Statements for Technical Schools is another example of the prioritisation of technical education. Given the strong emphasis South Africans have traditionally placed on matric, it will be necessary to raise the profile of such alternatives in the public consciousness.
As we commit ourselves to further improving the prospects for our youth to achieve educational success, we understand that there cannot be any short cuts to producing more matric graduates – this must happen through improving the quality of teaching and learning throughout the school system.
Enquiries:
Elijah Mhlanga
Cell: 083 580 8275
Troy Martens
Cell: 079 899 3070
