Rainfall began late in some summer rainfall areas during the 2014/15 summer season. Very dry conditions with high temperatures were experienced during January/February 2015 which affected crop production in some parts of the country.
These conditions have mostly affected rain-fed farmers than those farming under irrigation. Crop yields are estimated to be low as compared to the previous year. Drought has been reported in KwaZulu-Natal throughout summer.
While crops have been adversely affected and the veld has deteriorated up to date, livestock remains in reasonable to good condition. Rainfall in the winter rainfall areas appears to be delayed for the 2015 winter season and this may affect planting negatively particularly over the western regions. The level of major dams is above 60% in most provinces.
The latest report by the Famine Early Warning System Network indicates that most countries across the region experienced poor seasonal rainfall characterised by a late start of the season, prolonged dry spells from mid- January through April, poorly distributed rains, and flooding. Regional cereal production is expected to decrease by approximately, 12 and 22 percent from the five-year average and last year, respectively.
Significant decreases are expected in the southern parts of Zimbabwe, Malawi, Madagascar, Lesotho and South Africa. Most rural households across the region are consuming cereals from this year’s harvest and will likely experience Minimal ([Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)] IPC Phase 1) food insecurity outcomes between April and June.
However, in the southern parts of Zimbabwe, Madagascar, and Malawi rural households affected by the poor rainfall performance will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during this period.
From July to September, areas including southern and central Malawi, Madagascar, southern parts of Zambia, and parts of Lesotho will likely experience Stressed(IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes, while areas around the southern parts of Zimbabwe will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).The rest of the region will likely maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.
Despite the estimated below-average maize harvests across the region, particularly in the region’s biggest cereal surplus producing countries (South Africa and Zambia), regional cereal supplies are likely to remain stable from April to September due to significant carryover stock from last year in both South Africa and Zambia.
The Seasonal Climate Watch released by the South Africa Weather Service on 22 May 2015 states that the forecasting system indicates above-normal rainfall conditions for most parts of the country albeit relatively low probabilities throughout mid and late winter.
Moving towards early spring, there is still an indication of above-normal rainfall although the forecast is more uncertain. Above-normal temperatures are anticipated across the country through mid-winter towards early spring, with the exception of the mid-winter maximum temperatures that is forecasted to be below-normal. Farmers are encouraged to continually check updates i.e. seasonal forecasts and utilise 7 day weather forecasts for short term planning.
With the seasonal forecast in mind, and current conditions in provinces, farmers are advised to conserve water and other resources in accordance with the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act (Act No. 43 of 1983). Water restrictions should also be adhered to when issued. Winter crop farmers are advised to choose suitable cultivars.
Livestock should be kept in line with carrying capacity of the veld and should be provided with additional feed including licks to give sufficient nutrition. Dry and windy conditions during winter will enhance probabilities for veld fires over the summer rainfall regions.
Construction of firebreaks should commence in summer rainfall areas. Cold front activity will continue; hence isolated incidents of flooding are possible in winter rainfall areas and very cold condition in most areas of the country. Therefore measures for these should be maintained i.e. proper drainage systems, relocation of livestock and movable assets to a safe place.
Enquiries:
Makenosi Maroo
Chief Director: Stakeholder Relations and Communications
Tel.: 012 319 6787
Cell: 072 475 2956
E-mail: MakenosiM@daff.gov.za
