7 September 2006
Today Statistics South Africa released the adult mortality report which
reflects an extensive evaluation of adult mortality in South Africa from 1997
to 2004 and provides analyses of death rates by age, sex, year of death and
cause of death. This analysis also uses the Statistics South Africa mid-year
population estimates. In South Africa, the objective to reduce mortality is
reflected in the Government Programme of Action. This programme identifies key
areas of intervention and focuses on research and programmes to reduce
mortality from malaria, tuberculosis, non-communicable diseases such as
diabetes, asthma and hypertension, and unnatural causes of death, as well as
ongoing concern with HIV. Statistics South Africa recently released data on
registered deaths for 1997 to 2004 by age, sex and year of death.
Although not all deaths are registered in South Africa, a higher percentage
of all deaths were registered for 1997 - 2004 than in earlier years. Statistics
South Africa estimates that in 2000, more than 85% of all deaths of those aged
15 and older were registered. The release of the data on registered deaths 1997
- 2004 marks a high point in the quality of official data on mortality in
Africa. The findings in the Statistics South Africa adult mortality report give
a more complete picture of the level and causes of adult mortality than has
been available previously. It also draws attention to a number of questions for
further research. Some cautions for the South African population are also
pointed our, including the effects of diet, as shown in increasing diabetes
death rates, and the risks of unnatural death from a variety of causes in the
December holiday period. The detailed report can be accessed at http://www.statssa.gov.za.
Hopefully the findings and questions raised by this mortality report will
stimulate use of the newly released mortality data and will encourage research
into the many important questions about mortality in South Africa that need a
great deal of additional work.
* This report analyses data for people aged 15 - 64. The data on deaths of
children 0 - 14 are much more incomplete. It is estimated that less than 60% of
deaths to those aged 0 - 15 were registered for any year 1997 - 2004, while the
data for those above age 65 are distorted by age exaggeration. In the report,
the data on deaths by age, sex and year are adjusted to take into account
incompleteness of death registration. The methodology used to estimate the
percentage of deaths that are registered is the same as that used by Statistics
South Africa to estimate the mid-year population and to estimate the prevalence
of HIV.
* Death rates rose between 1997 and 2004 for every five-year age group for each
sex, except for males aged 15 - 19. Some of the increases in death rates were
very large. The death rates more than tripled for females aged 20 - 39 and more
than doubled for males aged 30 - 44.
* For the young and the old, increases in death rates were smaller. For each
sex, for those age 15 - 19 and 55 - 64, death rates between 1997 and 2004
increased by 20% or less.
* HIV death rates have a distinctive pattern by age in which there is an
increase to a given age and then a rapid decline at older ages. This peak
occurs at 30 - 34 for females and at 35 - 39 for males. It is clear that many
HIV deaths are registered as being because of some other cause of death. Based
on the age pattern of death rates by sex, it is likely that a high proportion
of deaths registered as resulting from parasitic diseases as a whole, parasitic
opportunistic infections, certain disorders of the immune mechanism and
maternal conditions (females only) are actually caused by HIV.
* Some registered causes of death rise to a peak with age but then decline at
older ages more slowly than HIV, especially for males. For these registered
causes of death, some of the deaths are likely actually because of HIV, but
some of the deaths are likely because of something other than HIV. These causes
of death include all infectious diseases, tuberculosis, malaria and nutritional
deficiencies.
* Between 1997 and 2004 there was virtually no change in overall cancer death
rates for either sex. For each sex, the death rate from cancer, stroke and
other circulatory causes combined rose by 12% between 1997 and 2004.
* Overall malaria death rates rose from 1997 - 1999 and declined from 1999 -
2004.
* Death rates from diabetes and obesity rose between 1997 and 2004. Female
death rates were always higher than male death rates, but the gap between the
sexes narrowed over time.
* Mortality rates from unnatural causes changed little from 1997 - 2004,
although they declined at age 15 - 19 and at older ages. Deaths from unnatural
causes are because of homicide, suicide or accidents. Unnatural cause deaths
are sometimes called external cause deaths, violent deaths or injury
deaths.
* The number of homicides in South Africa declined since the late 1990s.
Homicide rates remain very high, especially for males 35 - 39. Homicide
comprises the majority of unnatural deaths for males 35 - 39. Male homicide
rates are about six times higher than female homicide rates.
For more information contact:
Trevor Oosterwyk
Tel: (012)310 8130
Cell: 082 908 9104
Hilgard Matthews
Tel: (012) 310 2923
Cell: 082 805 7249
Issued by: Statistics South Africa
7 September 2006
