A Pahad: Briefing notes on International Affairs

29 August 2006

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

There are indications that the agreement that brought an end to hostilities
on Tuesday, 22 August 2006, is holding. The warring groups have started
returning to the locations they occupied before 20 August 2006 as part of the
agreement.

As part of the agreement reached on 22 August 2006, verification teams
(military related committees) consisting of the United Nations Mission in the
Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUC), Presidential National Commission
(PNC), European Union Police Mission (EUPOL) and representatives from the
warring groups have confirmed that indeed the warring groups have returned to
their original positions. The second committee of the agreement, the Mixed
Commission, which is supposed to deal with political matters, has not met. This
Commission is supposed to investigate what happened on 20, 21 and 22 August
2006.

The situation in Kinshasa is calm but tense and there has been a return to
normality. Members of MONUC, PNC and European Union Force (EUFOR) are
patrolling the streets of Kinshasa to ensure the ceasefire between the two
groups holds.

Negotiations to defuse the remaining tensions continue

It is expected the Cabinet, who have not met since 29 June 2006, are
expected to meet on 29 or 30 August 2006. It is vital for the Cabinet to meet
to enable it to give direction to the ongoing negotiations, etc.

Two television stations belonging to President Kabila and Vice President
Bemba have been suspended for failure to adhere to balanced journalism and
incidents of blatant inciting of people to acts of violence. The High Media
Authority took the initiative to launch a Code of Conduct for media. The first
such agreement was signed on Saturday, 26 August, and the second signing
session, with the aim of including all media in this arrangement, will be held
on Wednesday, 30 August 2006.

In terms of Article 71 of the new Constitution, the second round of
Presidential elections should be organised 15 days after the results of the
first round have been officially published. It is expected that the Supreme
Court will validate the provisional results on 30 August 2006. This would mean
the second round should be held around the 15 September 2006 although this is
logistically impossible. The head of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)
Rev Malumalu had initially proposed the second round of elections to be held on
29 October 2006. This was initially accepted by all parties with no objections
raised regarding the unconstitutionality of this date. It seems this matter
will now be raised.

In addition, representatives to the Joint Commission created in terms of the
22 August 2006 agreement, have not yet been nominated and the Commission has
not been able to begin its work. This commission should consist of
representatives of the Kabila and Bemba groups as well as MONUC. The Commission
is also to have two sub-groups, one to investigate the events of 21 and 22
August, and the second to deal with complaints from the two sides and to
establish rules according to which the parties will act and interact until the
time of the second round. The IEC has decided to publish the results of the
legislative elections as it becomes available, the first of which were
published on 26 August 2006. With the elections, we may have forgotten that
security problems still exist in the Democratic RC. There are suggestions by
MONUC that in the Ituri region, rebel leaders who signed the ceasefire
agreement operating in the Ituri region are recruiting fighters again. MONUC is
investigating these reports and this situation, if found to be true, cannot
continue as it would only serve to further destabilise the region.

Burundi

On 1 and 2 August 2006 opposition party leaders former Vice President
Alphonse Marie Kadege and former rebel leader Alain Mugabarabona were arrested
on the grounds of breaching national security. On 21 August 2006 former
President Domitien Ndayizeye was arrested. No official explanation has been
provided regarding the arrest of former President Ndayizeye.

The United Nations Security Council on 25 August 2006 released a statement
in this regard: "The members of the Security Council expressed their serious
concerns about the reports of a possible coup attempt in Burundi and the
subsequent arrests of political leaders. They encouraged the government to
follow due process during its investigations surrounding these events. They
called on the government and all parties in Burundi to preserve peace and
national reconciliation and to promote social concord in their country. The
members of the Security Council reiterated their support for the efforts of the
Regional Peace Initiative on Burundi and the South Africa Facilitation to
broker a peace agreement between the government of Burundi and the Paliphehutu
- Forces for National Liberation (FNL). They took note of the progress made so
far and urged both parties to conclude the discussions expeditiously."

As you know, the Ceasefire Agreement should have been signed today, but has
been postponed until further notice. The outstanding issue is the sharing of
military and government posts and logistical problems.

Cote d'Ivoire

Not much has changed since we spoke last week

United Nations (UN) Mission Chief Pierre Schori said, "There is a lot of
work being done, preparations being done, but the timetable set down, is not
realistic."

This matter will be discussed at a meeting convened by UN Secretary-General
Kofi Annan on the fringes of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in
September. All Ivorian and other parties will have the opportunity to present
their views and a decision can be taken on how to proceed.

The challenge remains: President Gbagbo has said he will remain President
until the elections are held, the opposition is saying that cannot be. The New
York meeting will have to discuss all these issues.

Sudan

Recently the Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hedi
Annabi warned the Security Council that the security situation in Darfur, has
worsened since the last briefing to the Council in June.

Last week Secretary General Kofi Annan wrote to the Security Council to
express alarm about the situation in Darfur. As many as 1,6 million people are
now inaccessible.

The situation continues to deteriorate. As you know, the United States (US)
and Britain have co-sponsored a resolution - which has not yet been
adopted.

Sudanese President Omar el-Bashir has written to the Security Council urging
it to be patient in resolving the conflict in Darfur and indicated that the
United State �United Kingdom (UK) draft for a UN peacekeeping force in Darfur
was unacceptable to Khartoum.

The US-UK draft calls for the deployment of a 17 500 strong UN force and an
additional 3 300 civilian police. The draft resolution also calls for an
expanded logistical role for the UN.

Sudanese Deputy Ambassador to the UN Omar Bashir Manis has said his
government remains opposed to a UN deployment: "Legally speaking the African
Union (AU) has not the right to transfer the mandate to the UN. The Sudanese
government is opposing the sending of troops and I cannot see how anyone can
envisage sending troops to a country which is not welcoming of these
troops."

We now find ourselves in a very delicate position. There are increasing
attacks against the AU with the killing of two Rwandan soldiers lately.

President Bashir, in a letter to the President of the Security Council
wrote: "At the most recent Summit of the AU, agreement was reached with Kofi
Annan, Secretary-General of the United Nations, that a six month plan would be
submitted under which the Government of Sudan, in co-operation with the African
Union and United Nations agencies involved, would return the security and
humanitarian situation in Darfur to normal. The plan was submitted to the
Secretary-General, who promised to study it and to express an opinion on it. We
looked forward, through the plan and through the discussion thereon with the
Security Council, to bringing together the efforts to achieve a comprehensive
and just peace in Darfur on the basis that the international family,
represented by the United Nations, would be a principal partner in support of
the efforts to achieve peace in Darfur. The process of transferring the mandate
of the African Union forces in Darfur to United Nations forces does not find
acceptance among large sectors of the people of the Sudan."

We are beginning to see sharp differences regarding this matter, and the US
Ambassador to the UN would like a vote by the end of August.

We must be very vigilant at this time.

The Arab League Foreign Ministers meeting in Cairo expressed support for
Sudan's position. They have however sent representatives to the Security
Council meeting yesterday while the Government of Sudan did not send any
representatives.

Uganda

Some positive news is the announcement that the Ugandan government and
Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) on Saturday, 26 August 2006, signed an agreement
to cease hostilities. This agreement becomes effective today Tuesday, 29 August
2006.

The Head of the Ugandan delegation Interior Minister Ruhakana Rugunda said,
"There is currently an unprecedented will from both sides to reach an
agreement."

The LRA supported this view by saying the, "LRA is more committed to this
process than ever before. We are committed to this process, however long it may
take."

Discussions are to begin on Thursday, 31 August 2006. Issues to be agreed
upon include:

* LRA demands that include huge cuts in the army
* LRA representation in all political appointments and total autonomy of
northern Uganda, wealth and power sharing as well as the economic and social
development of northern Uganda.

The truce also calls for the safe passage of LRA forces to two sites
designated as assembly points one at Owiny-ki-Bul in Sudan's eastern Equatoria
on the east side of the Nile, for those rebels in Southern Sudan and in Uganda,
and another for those in the DRC at Ri-Kwangba in Western Equatoria to the west
of the Nile. Those fighters in Uganda who cannot move to Southern Sudan are
allowed to assemble in any place of worship in Uganda.

There has been some significant progress and we hope it continues.

We were asked last week whether we had received a request from the LRA to
mediate. We can now confirm that we did, a week ago, receive this request. It
is our view that the facilitator, Dr Machar, is doing a good job and while we
will closely follow the situation, we should support him in his endeavours to
bring this matter to conclusion.

President Putin's State Visit to South Africa

Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay a historic visit to South Africa
Tuesday to Wednesday, 5 to 6 September 2006. This will be the first time a
Russian Head of State will visit South Africa and only the second time a
Russian Head of State will visit Africa.

As you know, Russia is currently chair of the Group of Eight (G-8) and a
permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Since developments in
Russia, we see it is now beginning to re-emerge as a player on the world
stage.

We believe this visit comes at a very opportune time the Russian President
in his State of the Nation Address in May 2006 has indicated that Africa is one
of Russia's foreign policy priorities.

Within this context, discussions will have increased relevance:

* Of course political and economic relations will have to be discussed,
especially the work that is being consolidated through the Intergovernmental
Trade and Economic Committee (ITEC).
* The visit will come a few days after Iran has responded to the Security
Council regarding its nuclear weapons programme and after the response to the
P5+ Germany proposal. Since we have not received a clear brief of the response
by Iran to the P5 + Germany, we look forward to discussing this matter with
President Putin. We would also like to receive an understanding from Russia as
to how the P5 + Germany intend to deal with this matter and Russia's position
on a Security Council resolution.

We will also seek Russia's position on the Middle East as the situation
continues to be volatile and dangerous. We will also discuss the regional
dynamics in the Middle East. As you know, Russia is a member of the Quartet and
a co-sponsor of the Roadmap.

United Nations Security Council reform - the United Nations General Assembly
meeting in September is very important as it will have to evaluate how far we
have come in terms of the United Nations reform. We are of the view that Russia
and South Africa have many common positions on this matter. We will also
discuss broadly with Russia the comprehensive reform of the United Nations
including the Bretton Woods institutions.

Trade Relations

Both countries began their democratisation processes at approximately the
same time.

In 2005, South African imports amounted to US$18,2 million and South Africa
exports amounted to US$106,5 million. We do not believe these figures are
reflective of the potential that exists between both countries.

President Putin will be accompanied by a large business delegation. The
Russian Federation adopted a Decree in March 2003 to include South Africa in a
list of developing countries that would enjoy preferential trade tariffs and
duties with regard to exports to Russia. Bilateral relations also expanded
significantly under the umbrella of the Intergovernmental Trade and Economic
Committee (ITEC) between South Africa and the Russian Federation.

Solid progress in the field of science and technology relations, especially
in terms of South Africa's policy objective of establishing South Africa as a
key player in international astronomy and deep space research; also
characterise the relationship.

Russian tourists at the high end of the market visiting South Africa
totalled 8 549 in 2002, and decreased slightly for the years 2003 to 7,698 and
2004 to 7,473 respectively. The number of Russian tourists is comparable to
those from Greece and Argentina. The number of South Africans visiting Russia
is growing steadily.

The South African fruit exporting company, Capespan now ranks Russia as its
single largest fruit export market for South Africa, surpassing the UK for the
first time last year. In 2004 Capespan exported fruit produce worth $20 million
to Russia out of a total trade of $56 million and presenting a 30 percent share
of the export market to Russia. Apple and pear exports have registered an
increase in their share of the South African deliveries to Russia. Demand for
grapes has been booming in Russia. This is an area that can be further
expanded.

We have also established a joint task team in the field of minerals and
energy. South Africa and Russia have some of the world's most strategic mineral
deposits.

The South African investment in Russia is also quite significant: The South
African multinationals Anglo-American, Standard Bank, De Beers, JCI,
Barlowworld, Capespan and Bateman have substantial interests in Russia. In
addition, SAB/Miller has established a brewery in the Kaluga Region, which
represented a US$100 million investment, and their product, Golden Barrel Beer,
is highly successful in the local market. Standard Bank also has a growing
presence in Russia as well as SAPPI, Protea Hotels and Sun International.

In March 2004, the Russian company, Norilsk Nickel bought 98,5 million
common shares, or 20 percent of the South African gold producer Gold Fields for
$1,16 billion. Norilsk Nickel is now the world's largest producer of the nickel
and palladium group of metals, accounting for 18 percent of world nickel
production, 13 percent of cobalt, three percent of copper, over 50 percent of
palladium, 14 percent of platinum and 15 percent of world gold production. It
should be noted that Norilsk Nickel announced in March 2006 that it plans to
sell the said shares bought from Gold Fields. It would be interesting to
ascertain from them reasons for this.

There are many other initiatives with regard to Russian companies: PetroSa,
Mvelaphanda Resources, Pan African Energy Resources, Pelewan and Lazig, Sekoko
Resources, Afro Resources, Mineralco, Randgold and Exploration, Phikoloso
Mining and Global Eagle Strategic Empowerment Alliance Systems have all had
discussions with their Russian counterparts.

The CEO of Renova, Mr Vekselberg, was invited in 2005 to become a member of
the President's International Investment Council. Russia's largest steel maker,
Evraz, recently said that it would decide within less than a year whether to
buy a bigger stake in Highveld Steel and Vanadium. Evraz currently has a 24,9
percent share in Highveld. It is possible that Evraz could buy Anglo America's
Highveld share of 29,2 percent in order to introduce black investors to
Highveld. There are tremendous opportunities for economic links to be
expanded.

Serious expression should be given with regard to exchanges of technology in
the fields of mining, mineral beneficiation, etc.

We are very pleased to be hosting President Putin especially since he
earlier this year indicated that Africa was a foreign policy priority for
Russia. It is important that relations be strengthened and this is very
important also in terms of New Partnership for Africa�s Development (NEPAD).
Russia's initiatives with regard to debt cancellation, special tariff
arrangements, etc indicate their support of the African agenda.

Russian soldiers are also involved in UN peacekeeping operations in the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Sierra Leone, Liberia and we will have
an opportunity to discuss African conflict resolution and peacekeeping.

Questions and answers

Question: Deputy Minister Pahad, Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Fraser
is trying to persuade President Bashir to accept a UN peacekeeping force. What
reports is South Africa receiving about this matter?

Answer: Our reports are indicating that she carried a letter from President
Bush to President el-Bashir but that she could not deliver it to him but to
another official.

Question: Deputy Minister, you have said President Gbagbo has said he will
remain President until the elections. What is the view of your government on
this? Will a transitional government be better?

Answer: This is not a matter for us to decide, the people of Cote d'Ivoire
must decide on this matter. This will be on the agenda of the September meeting
convened by United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan.

It is not likely that President Gbagbo is going to accept that his
interpretation of the Constitution is incorrect regarding his position that he
remains President until elections are held, nor will the opposition parties
easily relent on their positions. There are too many disparate views that must
be married for a solution to emerge.

Question: Deputy Minister Pahad, Greg Schultz the US representative to the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was in South Africa last week. I am
not certain whom he met. It is clear though that he would not have been here
unless there was dissatisfaction on the South African position. Is this
position going to change? When will we hear it?

Answer: The report from the Director-General of the IAEA Mohamed ElBaradei
will be available before the UN Security Council deadline. We will therefore be
able to see how Iran has managed to comply with the IAEA and whether our
position in maintaining that the IAEA is best placed to deal with this matter
is a correct one. We still believe that if the matter if taken to the Security
Council before all attempts to deal with it through the IAEA is exhausted, this
could be a recipe for disaster.

Question: Deputy Minister Pahad, John Bolton US Ambassador to the UN has
said that if the US cannot convince the Security Council to impose sanctions,
then the US would assemble a coalition of forces to impose sanctions on Tehran.
What is your view?

Answer: We have always believed that sanctions must be imposed through the
Security Council. If not, a new precedent will be set one through which
countries who do not comply with the imposition of sanctions could themselves
become the victims of threats and sanctions. We do not believe that sanctions
should be imposed outside of the Security Council.

Question: Deputy Minister Pahad, has South Africa expressed concern over the
arrests of Burundian opposition leaders? Have you received an explanation in
this regard?

Answer: We are following the matter. Before his arrest, former President
Ndayizeye met with the Presidents of Tanzania and Uganda and had also requested
a meeting with President Mbeki. Before anything could be finalised he was
arrested.

Former Vice President Alphonse Marie Kadege and former rebel leader Alain
Mugabarabona were also arrested on the grounds of breaching national security.
In response to a question of a few weeks ago regarding the alleged involvement
of South African's in the attempted coup, to date our investigations have shown
that no South African's have been involved in this plot.

Question: Deputy Minister Pahad, South African troops from Burundi are
scheduled to return later this year. Are you concerned that the withdrawal will
impact on the security situation?

Answer: The government of Burundi stipulated a timeframe for the withdrawal
of UN troops. In line with this we had already begun scaling down deployments
in terms of our bilateral arrangement with the government of Burundi including
Very Important Person (VIP) protectors. We hope that the withdrawal of these
troops will not leave a vacuum in terms of security.

Issued by: Department of Foreign Affairs
29 August 2006
Source: SAPA