knock out blow to climate sceptics
8 April 2007
South Africa has been keenly anticipating the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change second working group report on the scientific knowledge of
impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.
This report deals a knock out blow to climate sceptics. The overwhelming
mainstream scientific consensus has underpinned that we must continue to
prevent the emission of greenhouse gasses that cause climate change but just as
important is that adapting to climate change is now a priority. If we do not
see this as a clarion call to action, our legacy to future generations will be
massive disruption, loss of human life and species loss.
Those nations like the United States of America (USA) that have historically
contributed most to this problem should start to shoulder their responsibility
to lead in combating climate change and to assist vulnerable developing
countries to adapt to and deal with the devastating impacts.
The findings released by the IPCC this weekend are worse than I expected. It
sharply draws our attention to the many challenges that we face, not only as
policy makers, but in our everyday lives. The poorest parts of the world
especially in Africa and Asia will be hit hardest. The report contains a stark
warning on the tremendous risks of climate change.
This review by more than a hundred expert scientists is highly relevant to
deciding on climate change related policy around the world and especially for
assessing the risk of negative impacts and planning adaptation strategies in
South Africa. Working group two takes further the main conclusion of IPCC
working group one (the physical basis of climate change), which is that human
activities are changing our climate.
Working group two has identified several key impacts around the world. These
include the likelihood that climate change may also be amplified before
mid-century by carbon emissions from the natural world, a particularly
dangerous transition point that we want to avoid at all costs. There are also
risks of increasingly high rates of extinction in wildlife species as
temperatures rise by between 1,5 to 2,5 degrees Celsius. South African
ecosystems seem particularly vulnerable to this risk with many endemic species
at risk in the Fynbos, Succulent Karoo and other ecosystems.
New studies confirm that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to
climate variability and change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive
capacity. Africa is, importantly, at risk from increasing water stress in
certain regions, especially in southern Africa which will have significant
impacts on livelihoods of people in all sectors of society but particularly the
poor.
By 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people are projected to be
exposed to increased water stress due to climate change. In combination with
increased water supply demands this will adversely affect livelihoods and
exacerbate water related problems.
Agricultural production including access to food in many African countries
and regions is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and
change. The area of arable land suitable for agriculture, the length of growing
seasons and yield potential particularly along the margins of semi-arid and
arid areas are expected to decrease. This would further adversely affect food
security and exacerbate malnutrition on the continent. In some countries,
yields from rain fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.
Local food supplies are projected to be negatively affected by decreasing
fisheries resources in both the sea and large fresh water lakes due to rising
water temperatures, which may be exacerbated by continued over-fishing.
Regional changes in the distribution and production of particular fish species
are expected due to continued warming, with adverse effects projected for
aquaculture and fisheries.
Towards the end of the 21st century, projected seal level rise will affect
low lying coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could
amount to at least 5 to 10% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Mangroves and
coral reefs are projected to be further degraded, with additional consequences
for fisheries and tourism.
Unfortunately much of Africa still suffers from a poor coverage of weather
stations and has other technological challenges in assessing and responding to
climate change impacts. It is useful that the IPCC is now actively considering
the best available knowledge on adaptive strategies and has identified a range
of strategies that are currently being assessed and applied around the
world.
We will be interrogating these particular findings with great interest, as
we move forward in developing our own suite of strategies and responses and
applying them for the benefit of all our people.
Note to editors
The IPCC was established by the World Meteorological Organisation and United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess scientific, technical and
socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change its
potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. It is currently
finalising its Fourth Assessment Report "Climate Change 2007." The release on
Friday, 4 April 2007, of the Summary for Policy Makers on "Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability" makes public the second of three technical reports to be
published this year. A copy of the summary is available on the IPCC's website
(http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM6avr07.pdf)
Enquiries:
Riaan Aucamp
Cell: 083 778 9923
Issued by: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
8 April 2007
