Environmental Affairs and Tourism, in response to the release of the IPCC'S
Fourth Assessment Report
18 November 2007
World needs a stronger Kyoto: No nation may opt out South Africa wants a
2009 end date for negotiations.
From the work of hundreds of scientists captured in thousands of pages in
numerous documents, one message is clear â Climate change is happening now and
will get far worse with dramatic and even catastrophic and irreversible impacts
unless we substantially reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and start doing it
now.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report underscores the
urgency of significantly advancing the climate negotiations when Environment
Ministers meet in Bali in two weeks time. South Africa's Cabinet mandate is to
agree on a Bali roadmap that will outline a process to conclude negotiations on
a strengthened climate framework by the end of 2009 at the latest. (The first
commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol ends in 2012. Governments need
sufficient time to agree and to ratify commitments for the second commitment
period after 2012) The Bali roadmap should also outline the key elements that
should form part of a future agreement. It needs to balance the international
response on mitigation, in other words reducing emissions, with credible and
predictable support for adaptive activities in the face of inevitable climate
impacts. In addition, leadership by developed countries in facilitating
technology transfer and financing in support of both mitigation and adaptation
is a prerequisite for a balanced agreement.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, carbon constraints, or caps, have thus far only
been placed on industrialised or so-called Annex I countries. South Africa,
together with the developing or so-called non-Annex I nations of the world, has
been exempt from taking mandatory action to reduce our high level of relative
emissions. South Africa has a commitment to mitigate emissions within our means
under the convention, but there is no legally binding, quantified target. The
current regime allows South Africa along with others such as Brazil, China and
India to continue to grow without a cap on emissions.
However, increasingly, developing countries like ourselves will be expected,
and should be expected, to take our fair share of responsibility and
demonstrate our plans to contribute to the global response, albeit in a
differentiated way that recognises our growth imperative and our small
contribution thus far to the current crisis. The concession to non-Annex I
nations has seemingly prevented the biggest emitter on the world stage, the
United States of America (USA), from agreeing to targets. This deadlock must be
broken, and thus it can be expected that we will have greater responsibilities,
but still of a different kind than developed countries, after 2012.
In term of reducing emissions a strengthened Kyoto regime must weave
together three strands:
* much more ambitious emission reduction targets for all developed
countries,
* re-engagement of the USA and Australia in internationally agreed and binding
emission reduction targets under Kyoto (the USA and Australia are two developed
countries and large emitters who have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol),
* greater recognition of, and incentives for developing country mitigation
action.
For us the IPCC report serves as confirmation that the world needs the Kyoto
protocol - one that is substantially strengthened. We all need to do more and
no nation can any longer opt out of the Kyoto agreement.
Key findings from the report:
The 4th Assessment Report must be viewed as the report that provided the
clear justification for the award of the Nobel Peace Prize as it provides
global consensus on the fact that:
* warming of the climate is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations
of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting
of snow and ice and rising global average sea level,
* many natural systems, on all continents and in some oceans, are being
affected by regional climate change,
* largely as a result of human activities, atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases are the highest they have been for thousands of years â in the
case of carbon dioxide the current concentrations far exceeds the natural range
over the last 650 000 years.
From a South African perspective, the 4th Assessment Report provides a
disturbing picture of what climate change means for us in the section dealing
with 'reasons for concern,' including:
* Risks to unique and threatened systems â Confidence has increased that a 1
to 2 degrees C increase in global temperature above 1990 levels poses
significant risk to many unique and threatened systems including many
biodiversity hotspots (Fynbos is identified as such a hotspot in the underlying
reports). Approximately 20 to 30% of plant and animal species assessed so far
are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average
temperature exceed 1,5 to 2,5 degrees C.
* Risks of extreme weather events â There is now higher confidence in the
projected increases in droughts, heat waves and floods as well as their adverse
impacts. These increases will result in increased water stress and wild fire
frequency, adverse effects on food production, adverse health effects,
increased flood risk and extreme high sea level and damage to
infrastructure
* Distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities â There are sharp differences
across regions and those in the weakest economic position are often the most
vulnerable to climate change and are frequently the most susceptible to
climate-related damages. There is increased evidence that low-latitude and less
developed areas generally face greater risk, for example in dry areas. New
studies confirm that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents because of
the range of projected impacts, multiple stresses and low adaptive
capacity.
* Aggregate impacts â Climate change over the next century is likely to
affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flooding,
reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health
impacts.
* Risks of large-scale singularities â The complete deglaciation of the
Greenland ice sheet would raise sea level by 7m and could be irreversible.
Despite this dire confirmation of change and predictions for the future of
our planet, the fourth Assessment Report also provides hope â we can avoid many
of the potentially catastrophic impacts of climate change if we act together
and act now.
Enquiries:
Riaan Aucamp
Cell: 083 778 9923
Issued by: Ministry of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
18 November 2007
