2 February 2007
The release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th
Assessment: Summary for Policymakers report on the physical science of climate
change is a clarion call to those world leaders that are still hesitant to deal
pro-actively with the problem and its root causes. The compelling scientific
evidence of climate change presented in this report stresses the need for all
world leaders to acknowledge publicly that climate change is rapidly becoming a
global emergency requiring serious and immediate action.
The IPCC report clearly outlines the unequivocal link between human activity
and identified global climate change. Based on vastly improved data, analyses,
modelling and understanding of climate change developed over the past six
years, the report indicates that global temperatures and sea levels will
continue to rise, and unless urgent action is taken, could rise dramatically by
the end of the 21st Century. The clock is thus ticking and time is running out
for us to avoid major climate change with its attendant real and serious
threats to our economies and people's livelihoods, health, food security, and
damage to our ecosystems.
The IPCC report presents convincing evidence from around the world that
cumulative greenhouse emissions since the industrial revolution have caused and
continues to cause global climate change, and will continue to do so for many
decades to come. This will lead to further global temperature increases, sea
level rises, ocean acidification, the melting of glaciers, extreme weather
phenomena and disruptive changes in regional rainfall and weather patterns.
The observed and projected climate changes and attendant risks are now much
more clearly understood, and the human causes for most of the historical change
are now beyond doubt. The impact of burning fossil fuels on global warming can
no longer be disregarded. It is clear now that, in the space of a mere 150
years, humankind has elevated global greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere to levels unprecedented in the last 650 000 years. The fact that 11
of the 12 warmest years recorded since the industrial revolution has been
measured during the past 12 years further shows clearly that there is no slow
down in the rate of warming; in fact, the warming is faster than projected by
the IPCC's previous report in 2001.
The really alarming findings of the world's leading climate scientists
participating in the IPCC are contained in their projections for the
future.
* Under a "best case type scenario" of emissions, by 2099, the global
temperature would increase by a best estimate of 1.8oC (although this could be
as low as 1.1oC) and the sea level would rise by as much as 0.38 meters. (In
this scenario no initiatives to address climate change are implemented; the
world population peaks in mid-century; economies shift to be predominantly
service and information based and clean and resource efficient technologies are
introduced.)
* Under an emissions scenario more like "business-as-usual", by 2099, the
global temperature would increase by a best estimate of 4oC (however, this
could be as high as 6.4oC) and the sea level would rise by as much as 0.59
meters. (In this scenario no initiatives to address climate change are
implemented; the world population also peaks in mid-century; economies grow
rapidly; and the world adopts new and more efficient technologies, but which
are still fossil fuel intensive.)
This best estimate range of a global temperature increase by 2099 of between
1.8oC and 4oC in the absence of any climate action, with all the attendant
changes in weather patterns, clearly underlines the need for the international
community to take urgent steps to address global climate change.
Given this compelling scientific case, the lack of political will to act on
the grounds of scientific uncertainty has now become indefensible, rather than
merely ill-advised. We are now beyond a critical turning point in the debate:
those who continue to ignore the threat and its causes, or invoke half-baked
arguments to confuse and obstruct, will be doing the greatest disservice
imaginable to current and future generations.
If countries of the world fail to curb emissions of harmful greenhouse
gasses, there is virtually no doubt that global climate change will intensify,
and that the impact on sustainable development and the livelihoods of people
across the world will be severe. This is likely the single largest long term
threat the world has to deal with.
In particular, the new IPCC report is a wake-up call to the world's largest
emitter, the United States of America (USA). We applaud the unilateral climate
actions taken by the State of California and others and strongly encourage the
federal government of the USA to hear the growing groundswell of opinion in
that country, and act on their moral obligation to join the global effort under
the Kyoto Protocol and future negotiations to combat climate change.
But this report is not just a wake-up call to the USA. It reminds us that we
all have to do more to fundamentally change the way we operate and to confront
the severe challenges facing us over the next few decades. Though all countries
have a common responsibility to address climate change, we do have
differentiated responsibilities where the developed countries who are the major
cause of the problem must take the lead in addressing it. Nevertheless, we all,
developed as well as developing - have to act in accordance with our national
capabilities.
The IPCC's report also underlines the fact that long timescales are required
for removal of man-made carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It is the
accumulation of past emissions that are contributing to global warming and sea
level rise. This observation supports the longstanding insistence by developing
countries that responsibility for historical emissions (whose effects will
continue for decades to come) is the moral basis for developed countries'
obligation to take the lead in reducing emissions and in assisting vulnerable
countries to adapt to the devastating impacts of climate change.
The South African government has long been attuned to the forewarnings
provided by balanced science. We note that South African scientists have played
a leading role in all of the IPCC writing and review phases.
It now remains for us to enhance and co-ordinate our own science research
activities and policy responses in the best way possible. In the best interests
of our people this will enable us to adapt as the climate changes, and to avoid
the worst consequences of future change. We will scrutinise the implications of
this report closely, and especially its chapter on the regional implications of
global climate change, and we look forward to the next three IPCC reports: on
Impacts and Adaptation; on Mitigation and the Synthesis Report which are due
for release later this year.
Note
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the
World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP) to assess scientific, technical and socio- economic information relevant
for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and options for
adaptation and mitigation. It is currently finalising its Fourth Assessment
Report "Climate Change 2007". The release on Friday, 2 February 2007 of the
Summary for Policy Makers on "The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change"
makes public the first of three technical reports and a comprehensive Synthesis
Report to be published this year. The scientific evidence summarised in the
report includes peer reviewed published research over the past six years,
synthesised and reviewed by some 2 500 scientists in 130 countries.
For further information, please contact:
Riaan Aucamp
Cell: 083 778 9923
Issued by: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
2 February 2007
