5 June 2007
1. The potential impacts and risks of unanticipated climate variability and
projected climate change are severe. Addressing climate change is one of the
critical challenges that can be achieved through integrated government
planning, partnerships at the local level and with the private sector and civil
society, and a strengthened multilateral regime at the international level.
Success in anticipating climate change impacts will also enhance our ability to
cope much better with short term climate variability.
2. In support of government's efforts to align policy-making with our
climate change challenges, the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change
initiated the Long Term Mitigation Scenario process. This process will outline
the range of ambitious but realistic scenarios of future climate action,
notably long-term emissions scenarios and their cost implications. In addition,
various national departments, provinces and cities are refining their sector
plans in line with the national Climate Change Response Strategy. Working
closely with industry, Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEAT)
will also be finalising our updated Greenhouse Gas Inventory and SA's National
Communication for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) early next year.
3. Ultimately, the results of the Long Term Mitigation Scenario process, the
sector strategies and our interaction with the best available science, will
collectively inform our first ever Long Term National Climate Policy which we
intend publishing during 2008/09. This Policy will elaborate on the National
Climate Change Response Strategy published during 2004 and the Midrand Plan of
Action adopted during the national Climate Change Conference in 2005.
Developing a National Adaptation Plan
4. Adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change must occur in
parallel to efforts to slow down climate change. In the international community
it is likely that funding will increasingly be made available to sensible,
innovative and effective adaptation plans. We in South Africa should position
ourselves to be amongst the leaders in these efforts, and to gain from this
trend in a way that will yield long term benefits.
5. A number of departments and institutions, not least the Departments of
Water Affairs and Forestry, Agriculture, and Science and Technology have made
major strides in integrating planning and strategies to adapt to climate change
with their research, development and implementation frameworks. Though the Long
Term Management Strategy (LTMS) process is primarily mitigation focused, it
will also produce a valuable information base that could assist us in taking
forward our work on adaptation. DEAT and the South African Weather Service
(SAWS) is also up-scaling our efforts on atmospheric monitoring, which will
provide invaluable baseline data for future adaptation work.
6. DEAT will build on the outputs of our UNFCCC National Communications (to
be completed early next year) and the progress achieved by our partners in
other departments and institutions to design a process that will, over the next
few years, match our efforts on the mitigation scenario building process. This
will eventually lead to the development of a National Adaptation Plan. This
process will initially be aimed at integrating and collating the existing work
on adaptation and on the basis of this identify a medium term programme to
address the gaps in our current knowledge base.
7. Within DEAT's portfolio, a priority area of work in this context deals
with the impacts of climate change on key environmental assets. These include
especially our natural heritage in the most threatened eco-systems and
conservation areas of this country, marine resources and ecosystem goods and
services that support so many livelihoods and maintain our environmental health
and integrity.
Dealing with the impacts of climate change on key environmental assets
8. Last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirmed that
climate change is emerging as the single greatest driver of biodiversity loss,
and as such will by mid-century have a dramatic impact on key eco-systems,
conservation areas, marine resources, and potentially tourism.
9. It stands to reason that tourism could be affected by climate change
through a combination of loss of biodiversity, and changes in temperature,
humidity and risk climate-sensitive diseases and other invasive organisms.
Nature based tourism and wildlife are cited by some 30% of international
visitors as key attractions in conservation areas and beyond. With tourism
contributing just over eight percent of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the
economic impact of climate change on tourism could be very large indeed. This
does not include the more direct market impacts of climate change, e.g. on
agriculture, invasive species, water resources and non-market impacts, e.g. the
existence value of biodiversity, the subsistence use of natural resources and
the impacts on human health.
10. Globally, by mid century, 20% to 30% of plant and animal species are
likely to be at increased risk of extinction as a result of climate change.
Closer to home, in sub-Saharan Africa, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) indicated that between 25% and 40% of animal species in national
parks will see further increases in threat status. South African Fynbos and the
Succulent Karoo ecosystem seem particularly vulnerable and for a mean global
temperature increase of between two and three degrees celsius during this
century, we stand to lose between 50% and 65% of our unique Fynbos.
11. Potential shifts in the strength and position of the Benguela current
upwelling system that supports South Africa's most productive fishery are also
indicated.
12. In conservation areas the threats appear to be real and urgent. For
example:
* Kruger National Park: more intense rainfall interspersed with possibly
more extended dry spells, changes in the tree cover and grass production,
greater competition for water with water users upstream of the park.
* Hluhluwe-Imfolozi Park: aggressive bush encroachment and spread of
biodiversity-choking invasive plants such as triffid weed.
* Table Mountain National Park: local extinctions of climate-sensitive fynbos
species with possible loss of sensitive habitats such as ancient perennial
water seeps, increased frequency of fires, accelerated spread of alien invasive
species.
* Addo: greater frequency of intense rainfall events interspersed with longer
droughts
* Isimangaliso Wetland Park: gradual sea level rise leading to increased
salinity and species loss in wetlands, and in conjunction with extreme storm
events and possible degradation of mangroves that act as natural barriers
against storm surges
* Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park: extreme temperature increase leading to
die-back of key species such as observed in the desert quiver tree, and even
remobilisation of the Kalahari dune system over decades
* Tanqua Karoo National Park and other protected areas of the Succulent Karoo:
very likely increased risk of extinction of tens to hundreds of endemic
succulent species over the next few decades
* Coastal wetland bird sanctuaries: salinisation and degradation due to sea
level rise and storm surges may threaten the integrity of these ecosystems with
threats especially for migrant species; greater unpredictability of rainfall
may threaten bird species dependent on seasonal water bodies.
13. In order to preserve our magnificent heritage and key environmental
assets, and ensure that it is passed on intact to the children and
grandchildren of this nation, and indeed the world, we have to recognise that
our knowledge base is incomplete. Within DEAT's portfolio, we will focus
pro-actively on enhancing research on the impacts of climate change on key
environmental assets, and in support of ecosystem planning, biodiversity
management (also outside parks), the management of marine resources, park
management and climate change adaptive plans. This will be achieved through
strong cross-disciplinary approaches and by working closely with the funders of
science, such as Department of Science and Technology (DST), and academic
institutions.
New international partnerships to enhance domestic implementation
14. Over the past year we have enhanced our capacity for domestic
implementation through a number of international partnerships.
India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA): In December 2006, I agreed with my
counterparts from India and Brazil that the initial cooperation framework for
the IBSA Climate Change Working Group will focus on strengthening IBSA South *
South cooperation on climate change, and coordination during the negotiations
and actions under the UNFCCC and other relevant international initiatives. This
will eventually be expanded to include scientific exchange, student exchange,
technology transfer, and technology R&D cooperation.
Australia: South Africa and Australia both need to implement policies and
measures in the biodiversity sphere and also in the agricultural sector.
Through practical joint activities and mutual learning, we will enrich our
respective domestic programmes to adapt to the devastating impacts of climate
change with a view to conserving our rich biodiversity, and achieving improved
food security. In terms of mitigation, we will share expertise on greenhouse
gas emissions reporting and monitoring, and exchange experiences and lessons
learned on climate change policies and measures - with a particular focus on
clean coal technologies and regulatory and institutional frameworks.
United Kingdom (UK): Under the South Africa-UK High-Level Dialogue on
Sustainable Development, which includes cooperation on energy for sustainable
development, environmental enforcement, mainstreaming sustainable development,
and sustainable consumption and production, we have established a Working Group
on Climate Change. The working group on climate change will formulate a full
programme including work on the adaptation and impacts. It has already agreed
to undertake joint research work on possible forms of long-term global action
on climate change.
European Commission: South Africa and the Commission established a formal
dialogue and joint cooperation forum on the environment and sustainable
development, with a specific working group focusing on issues relating to
climate change. This area of work will focus on policy dialogue and
implementation of respective commitments under the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and other climate change
related projects or programmes such as adaptation, renewable energy, energy
efficiency, disaster management, research, technology development and
deployment.
Enquiries:
Riaan Aucamp
Cell: 083 778 9923
Issued by: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
5 June 2007
