Speech by Minister for Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation and Chairperson of the National Planning Commission, on the occasion of the Statistics South Africa Budget Vote
Honourable Chairperson,
Ministers and Deputy Ministers present; Honourable Members,
The Chair of the Statistics Council,
Statistician-General,
Other Stats SA Officials,
Ladies and gentlemen.
It is my single honour to present today the Budget Vote of Statistics South Africa, Vote 12.
The outpouring messages of condolences underline the shock and sadness at the loss of 11 African National Congress members who tragically died over the past weekend in a bus accident. Our thoughts and prayers are indeed with the bereaved and we wish the speedy recovery of those injured during the accident.
We must re-iterate that the law must take its course to ensure safety on our roads. Our hearts also pour out to the family of Professor Tim Dunne of the University of Cape Town, who tragically died from a car accident on Sunday evening. We have lost a teacher of statistics and a Professor of life from whom we expected a lot more from his life.
It is with great pleasure once more to table to the nation progress on the work we are doing through Statistics South Africa to ensure we have reliable data to project, formulate, implement and review public and private policy objectives. Without reliable data it would be inconceivable that government, the private sector and NGO’s could be able to speak of development in any area of human endeavour in concrete terms.
Amongst the main programmes driven through government and involving the entire nation is the National Development Plan. The NPC which was at the centre of its formulation, is in turn constituted by experts from various fields, and these are not fortune tellers but social scientists in various disciplines who rely on scientific data to project and review both the challenges and solutions that faces South Africa today and going into the future.
Legend has it that the Spartan Oracle of Apollo at Delphi was asked by a young man who wanted to respond to a military campaign. The Orcale’s answer was “Go, return not die in war.” The statement has a double-meaning which is: go return not, and die in war, or: go and return, do not die in war. So the facts the Oracle based on his advice accepted all outcomes. Naturally, this Oracle was unhelpful for the purpose of making the crucial decision about whether or not to go to war.
On the other hand in our memorable 2010 World Cup, we shall remember how Paul the Octopus, based its predictions on stimuli presented by its handlers. Ordinarily such an indepth analysis would require a large set of data including the age of the competing squads, history of individual performances, likely combinations of players in the games and match and mental fitness of players.
It could be such large data that would enable anyone to can come to a reasonable prediction within confidence limits that Germany would win the World Cup. Whilst Octopus Paul made decisions tantamount to spinning a coin, our statistics work require continuous gathering of data and analysis.
It is in this regard that in our planning work we need people who should interrogate the sanity of the facts by ploughing through historical data, assessing the environment and through scenarios look at the most likely outcome. Such a process demands mountains and oceans of data. It is not an exercise in soothsaying of the Oracle, it is an exercise in understanding the facts and managing the margin of uncertainty as presented by the facts as in the case of Octopus Paul.
Thus for the DPME to do its work well it needs reliable data and statistics. That is why the relocation of Statistics in the DPME was sound decision as this enable synchronisation between the broad spectrum of the Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation mandate with the data that must inform decisions and conclusions made.
Our NDP tells us our destination, it points to the cardinal point of where we must go and sheds light on the benefits of the destination, and tells us how we will look like when we get there. But to get there we need a set of tools consisting of a compass, a vehicle with a speedometer, a rain gage and an altimeter amongst others, in order to gain intelligence from measurement about the route and environment we are traversing in our quest to get to the true North.
We need this array of statistics so that we can slash the bushes and clear our way to reach this destination. We give this elaborate explanation so as to highlight the significance of the work done by Statistics SA and the value for money we invest in this very important institution.
Statistics South Africa collects in excess of 235 releases per annum in order to inform our National Development Plan. Amongst an array of data we have the Gross Domestic Product, which tells us on a quarterly and annual basis how our economy performs towards our NDP priority outcome of Growing the Economy.
An economy and society perform better when they enjoy a healthy and long life and as regards this outcome StatsSA annually releases Causes of Death Report which sheds light on why and how South Africans die.
To shed light on the outcome that “All people in South Africa are and feel safe”, Statistics South Africa releases on annual basis Crime Statistics which tells us about levels, patterns and geographic manifestation of crime.
The Outcome on Decent Employment through inclusive growth is informed by the quarterly labour force survey. With this array of data we can be assured that we have the information that tells us about our terrain and how we are traversing through it to reach our true North.
To implement the nine point plan, we rely on an integrated information system which StatsSA is now bringing out. Rather than discuss growth in isolation of prices and employment, the value add in our toolkit is a set of statistical tools like the Social Accounting Matrix and the Growth Accounting Framework which shed more comprehensive flood light on the complexity of the path and what is hidden under the bushes we are clearing. And indeed we begin to see that there are snakes, frogs, leopards and lions decorating our path towards the cardinal direction dictated to by our compass.
Over the past budgets votes, we have indicated that the youth constitutes the majority of our population and that consequently our policies must be biased towards their development. In a manner much clearer than before, StatsSA Monday released the Youth Profile Report which comprehensively told us a tale of who are our youth, where they live and how they live.
The report is the first in a series giving a narrative on vulnerable groups, in this regard the youth of our country. As we enter the 40th Anniversary of the Soweto Student Uprisings, we are reminded by StatsSA of the challenges our country faces.
The report crystalizes for our benefit, the challenges the youth still face and are yet to face. These are unemployment, social and economic exclusion, disease, crime and difficulties in getting to higher education. This happens despite the resources, effort and energy we put through our policy instruments.
Despite the progress that our hard won democracy ushered upon us, we still face deep rooted challenges as regards the youth and in particular the life of a Black and Coloured Youth. The reminder frames for us the vexed question of “whither a demographic dividend for South Africa.”
Thus data as presented by StatsSA helps to highlight the change of course necessary to arrest the challenges of youth development. The National Youth Policy 2020 and the Integrated Youth Development Strategy attempts to do precisely that by responding to policy issues in a concerted way that involves all government departments and all private sector institutions. Statistics tell us the NYDA can only be champion of youth development but capacity wise cannot be the panacea of all youth development.
It is through the flood light, the integrated statistics that we now understand the imponderables that we are facing and we will face as we unstoppably head to the true North.
Citizen engagement is crucial and tests the Outcome on an efficient and development-oriented public service. In this regard StatsSA working together with Kwa Zulu Natal Government undertook a citizen satisfaction survey in October and the results were delivered in January just 100 days later.
These results of citizens’ views are a mirror to which the government of KZN holds itself. It is a mirror by which citizens see themselves in relation to the government and thus the report is a trusted conduit through which mutual accountability and social compacts and contracts can be established. The results of the survey are being used extensively by the government and citizens’ of KZN to discuss how service delivery can be addressed and improved. This is central to implementation of IDPs in local municipalities.
In short, this demonstrates how through joint work in government social compacts and contracts are implemented in reality and thus the Batho Pele Principles are advanced. Secondly, the speed with which the results were released and discussions began amongst government and citizens illustrates that the KZN government listens and aims at addressing the identified issues.
Thirdly, we have learnt from experience of this survey and I have already taken steps to have it replicated across the country, so that we do not encounter information asymmetries in a unitary state.
The NGOs and the private sector are well served by StatsSA as they bring to bear information services that help us to march to the true North. Statistics is a public good and as such reduces the cost of doing business. Markets wait with abated breaths for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which was released at 11:30 this morning. We know that this price measure is a trusted indicator in the country and globally.
The CPI dropped to 6.3% in March from 7% in February 2016. The private sector, government and labour watch this number in a hawkeyed way because it is the conduit of trust in the difficult world of salary and wage negotiations.
The Reserve Bank uses this to review the repo rate. This is the arsenal of tools that StatsSA has in its toolkit to inform our planning, monitoring and evaluation as we traverse to our true north. We need this data and we should use it.
The statistics approach to development is embraced universally, hence Statistics South Africa continues to collaborate and exchange best practices with similar bodies continentally and throughout the world. Some of you will recall that the theme of the last World Economic Forum convened in Davos had as its prime focus the Fourth Industrial Revolution, of which the role of information technology plays pivotal role.
Honourable members, I am pleased to report that Statistics South Africa delivered the mapping of SDG indicators on our National Development Plan Indicators and has aligned the SDG’s Africa Agenda 2063 and the NDP indicators thus creating an enabling platform for seamlessly implementing our development agenda.
If we are to ensure success of the National Development Plan programmes, the National Youth Policy 2020, the Integrated Development Plans at local municipalities, the 9 Point Plan and our all our policy and programmatic responses to the trio challenges of inequality, unemployment and poverty, we must have reliable data to inform such broad policy interventions.
From time to time, as government we adopt various policy and programme instruments to attend to the challenges we face in business, government departments, labour, NGO’s and civil society at large. Statistics tell us whether or not these are appropriate tools to resolve the given challenges.
Thus this budget vote is about the validation of the policy and programmes we have adopted and recommendations for the change of course where results dispute the appropriateness of the interventions we may have chosen. In doing all this, we are guided by the broad trajectory of our historic mission crystallised in the Constitution, the soul of our nation, of which we celebrate its 20th anniversary this year.
I am pleased to announce that in the last ten months Statistics South Africa delivered the Growth Accounting Framework (GAF), the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and Zipf as enablers should make our planning cohesive through high quality data. Over the next two to three years these tools will unfold into fully-fledged hard-data-based instruments which will undergird the planning process.
Honourable chairperson, the harvesting of data from administrative records is one part of building the South African National Statistics System. The South African National Statistics must enable the building of a collective and time bound plan for the production of official statistics by all relevant organs of state. These developments have the effect of increasing demand for requisite skills with the concomitant pressure in providing these skills.
In twenty days from today, StatsSA will again be out in field for the next five months conducting a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). By StatsSA taking over the activity, we bring closure to a survey that was vexed by controversy as this was at times run by private consultants.
On the 22nd of April a record 155 countries will sign climate agreement which brings to centre stage natural capital accounting in addition to labour and capital in our statistical production system. The Paris Agreement has therefore been necessarily accompanied by work of statisticians called the system of economic and environmental accounts (SEEA). StatsSA will be on the forefront of this.
Emerging out of the repatriation of the Expenditure side of the GDP from the South African Reserve Bank to Statistics South Africa, the next big task is to tackle trade statistics as a natural progression. In this regard preliminary and discussions have started amongst the Statistician-General, the SARS Commissioner and the Governor of the Reserve Bank.
What then is the required financial resource portfolio for StatsSA to fire up its delivery thirst?
Stats SA’s budget for 2016/17 is R2.5 billion.
Included in the aforementioned 2016/17 budget under programme 7 is an amount of R381.5 million earmarked for conducting of the Community Survey and an amount of R181.4 million earmarked for buildings and other fixed structures under programme 1 for the unitary payment for the new building acquired in terms of the Private Public Partnership agreement.
In the 2015/16 financial year Statistics South Africa spent 97.8% of its allocated budget of R2.3 billion. Stats SA will request a roll-over of R49 million not spent and this will be towards the completion of construction of the new building scheduled for opening in 41 days from today.
The Income and Expenditure Survey is used to rebase and reweight the Consumer Price Index and provides information on poverty and equality.
The Continuous Population Survey provides service delivery information at municipal level, more frequently between censuses.
Honourable Members, the question of trust is an important one. The statistical system needs people who are scientifically proficient to produce the kind of knowledge that can illuminate the dark path of practice, be that in policy or in politics and society.
Stats SA has helped us realize that statistics is a conduit of trust. It is the kind of trust which gives society confidence that democracy can go from strength to strength and in that respect enable us to take qualitatively better decisions and answer the crucial question of “whither a demographic dividend in South Africa.”
Thus if the work of government to transform society through better quality of life as the tree and branches, then statistics are the roots in the consolidation of our constitutional democracy.
We thus urge this honourable house to approve the 2016/17 budget for Vote 12 Statistics South Africa because StatsSA delivers and has demonstrated a proven record of delivery.
Allow me to thank Mr Pali Lehohla, the Statistician General and the Statistics Council chaired by Mr Ben Mphahlele and their staff. Allow me also to thank the Portfolio Committee under the leadership of Hon. Peace Mabe for their continued guidance and support.
Finally let me thank my family and in particular Bridget and the children for their support.
Thank you very much!
