Address by the Deputy Minister in the Presidency, Mr Buti Manamela, to the 7th African Population Conference at St Georges Hotel, Pretoria
THEME: South Africa — the tale of a successfully led Demographic Transition with an elusive Demographic Dividend, lessons for the continent
Chairperson of the Session – Dr Leon Swartz
Minister of Social Development – Ms Bathabile Dlamini
Statistician General – Mr Pali Lehohla
UNFPA Country Representative – Dr Esther Muia
Nompumelelo Nzimande – President of the Population Studies Association of Southern Africa
Thank you for inviting me to speak at this august gathering on South Africa’s approach on the ‘demographic transition’ and the ‘elusiveness nature of the demographic dividend’.
I hope we will also learn lessons, and not only share experiences.
In addressing the Demographic Dividend as a concept I would like to take us through a journey through Europe both West and East, Asia and Africa before I come to South Africa as each of these regions and the country present a set of historical experiences that are informative and amazing.
Western Europe: Our western world experienced prolonged periods of population change.
Reverend Thomas Malthus witnessed some of the harshest consequences of the nascent industrialisation of Europe on its population.
His enquiry led him to pen a theory of geometric population growth against an arithmetic economic growth. This came to be known as the Malthusian theory, and in response, Marx labeled Malthus as a vile clergyman who puts the ills of capitalism at the hands of the poor.
In the main the changes in Colonial Europe were accompanied by colonial conquest with the hunger for raw materials for her industrialization.
Popularizing the Malthusian theory was the drive for outmigration to solve population growth. But with industrializing Europe the demand for skills increased rapidly and women joined the labour force through education. Suddenly better education improved public hygiene, sanitation and medical services. Children survived and there was no need for large families.
This dying need for large families inspired the notion of desired family size and voluntary contraception. The organic change of the European population was then concluded with longer life expectation. The demographic transition theory was born.
Eastern Europe: The frailties of a Malthusian scare to population growth were exposed largely by Socialist Europe which liberated swathes of lands and populations from serfdom.
Socialism liberated women through education and they subsequently participated in the economy. Therein resided the theory of population and Lenin thus wrote that every mode of production produces and reproduces its population structure through the social relations of production. Thus capitalist economies will create what they regard as ‘surplus population’. The Malthusian spectre in socialist Europe was dumped.
Asia: An aggressive and direct population control strategy of vasectomy in India and one child policy in China was adopted in the late sixties. This was an explicit strategy to reduce the future size of the population. In China the strategy was accompanied by a very deliberate state driven and led strategy of massive training and skills development. In India there was not a strategy that attended education universally.
Africa: Accompanied by slavery, colonialism, high rates of infant and child mortality, plagues and disease Africa’s threshold to a demographic transition was to take much longer if at all.
But as Africa came to terms with its development challenges the world panicked with all sorts of externally driven prescriptions for solving Africa’s challenges.
Mirrored against a developed Europe the prospect for a demographic disaster haunted many population scientists and in this regard the only cure was the revival of the Malthusian theory and subsequently the Club of Rome and the book they sponsored in which Meadows narrated limits to growth was born in the sixties.
Buoyed by the Chinese and the Indian experience of population control the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) was to be the proxy for the Meadows theory of limits to growth and they turned to Africa with a crude strategy of family planning.
It was not until the Bucharest Conference of 1974 where Africans unleashed what came to be know the hidden agenda and this by and large informed the second decade of development and made the UNFPA to change its language of family planning to what became Planned Parenthood.
In later years United Nations Fund for Population Activities changed its tactics and started preaching population development which culminated into the International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) which was first held in Cairo in 1994. The UNFPA then changed its name to the United Nations Population Fund.
In the case of South Africa: The Swart Gevaar or Black Danger as the apartheid regime defined itself in relation to the majority Black population drove the white minority regime into building a battery of instruments that would lead to a demographic transition of a special type.
By forced migration and separation of families, the regime broke trust in family life between women and men and wives and husbands. (That is why we now have TV shows called Khumbul’ eKhaya and uTatakho. But that is a longer topic for another day).
But as the drivers of nature will demand that sex occurs, an easy strategy that would create pseudo space for trust was the introduction of contraceptives.
The use of these became popular as they would mitigate the consequences of existence of multiple relations of families separated by apartheid.
Apartheid also denied Blacks quality education with the introduction of Bantu Education which in particular ensured that Blacks would not do the Science, Technology and Mathematics (STEM) subjects.
Breaking the Black family structure and introducing family planning to them ensured that Black South Africa would experience the sharpest demographic transition. Blacks are 80% of the population and currently the total fertility rate in South Africa is 2.5 births which is reducing and headed close enough to replacement at 2.1. I will get back to whither a demographic dividend in South Africa and lessons. For now let me discuss matters data.
With this background in mind it is clear that to truly understand the demographic dividend it is important to have reliable data sources, population and housing censuses are one such data source but also and importantly Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS).
Many efforts have gone into ensuring that reliable data is produced in South Africa, the continent and the World. At continental level the Africa Symposium on Statistical Development (ASSD) was born out of experiences of difficulty in coordinating the 2010 round of population and housing censuses by Africa.
The ASSD has rallied Africa to record the highest number of countries undertaking their censuses. Only four countries did not conduct their universal count: Eritrea, Central Africa Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo did not count while the Somalia undertook a large-scale sample survey. African countries have, through the ASSD vehicle, shared lessons and experiences in a manner that provided encouragement to ensure that the census program is a success.
The existence of reliable statistical institutions in the continent coordinated by the ASSD parallel to an exciting plan for Africa’s development, Agenda 2063, is a potent elixir for development in the continent. This will ensure a reliable measurement of development, and important aspect of guaranteeing a demographic dividend in this demographic transition.
In South Africa, we have mirrored our National development Plan 2030 and the National Youth Policy 2020 on Agenda 2063 and the Africa Youth Charter. We see these as strategic frameworks for the socio-economic transformation of the continent over the next implementation 50 years.
Agenda 2063, in particular, builds on, and seeks to accelerate the past and existing continental initiatives for growth and sustainable development. Agenda 2063 will be attained through strategies of inclusive growth, job creation, increasing agricultural production; investments in science, technology, research and innovation; gender equality, youth empowerment and the provision of basic services including health, nutrition, education, shelter, water and sanitation.
One of the seven aspirations of Agenda 2063 is about an Africa whose development is people-driven, relying on the potential of African people, especially its women and youth, and caring for children.
One of the elements of this aspiration is creating opportunities for Africa‘s youth for self-realisation.
The Agenda 2063 recognizes that Africa’s youth bulge translates into a demographic dividend by: strengthening entrepreneurial capacity; supporting decent and well-paid jobs for young people; increasing access to education; increasing access to finance by the youth; promoting youth participation in political processes; eradicating human trafficking; and eliminating child labour.
At the international level the transition from Millennium Development Goals to the Sustainable Development Goals is taking place.
At the 70th session of the United Nations General Assembly which took place in September 2015 the 17 goals and 169 targets were adopted. The SDGs are premised on the notion of ‘leave no one behind’.
They will deal with the unfinished business of the MDGs, at the same time deal with emerging issues and developmental challenges such as climate change, inequality, violence against women, governance, etc.
As far as possible the SDGs will be disaggregated by age, sex, disability and level of geography which will make it possible to ensure that no one is left behind in the post 2015 development agenda.
The indicator framework that will be adopted at the United Nations Statistics Commission (UNSC) in March 2016 already has proposed indicators that will make it possible to gather data on important societal phenomena including the demographic dividend as it relates to opportunities for young people that include education, employment, entrepreneurship, finance.
What was the big fuss on population?
Western Europe and the UNFPA made such a fuss about absolute numbers of population and today this discourse has been blighted by what is called a demographic dividend, suggesting that a big and youthful population after all is not a bad thing as Malthus made us to believe.
Africa is touted as the most important continent to emerge and hope is pinned on the youth bulge. But truth be told the African human resource development strategy and operational actions are far from delivering what China’s focused demographic transition strategy delivered. It was only when the dividend emerged that China boasted a demographic dividend. Africa is shouting dividend, very critical, but in the absence of a human resource strategy that convinces anyone that such can be delivered, we may experience a demographic disinvestment.
Whither Demographic dividend South Africa:
A demographic dividend is brought about by expanding the thinking capabilities of the human mind and brain. It was however in the best interest of apartheid South Africa to deprive Blacks of education.
Generation after generation this deliberate strategy was exercised with impunity. As a consequence it is only in the last twenty years that we have managed to achieve universal primary education for Blacks. Amongst Whites and Indians pass rates at matric irrespective of income quintile are above seventy percent.
Amongst Blacks even the highest income quintile only experiences a meagre fifty percent pass at matric. Acquiring this basic education enables and opens doors for prospects of a demographic dividend.
However clearly the odds are stacked against Blacks, illustrating that not only is class at play but the motive force remains race. The growth in the proportion of the skilled employed amongst Indians and Whites aged between 25-34 from 1994 to 2014 has shot up by 24 percentage points from above 28% for Indians and 40% for whites. The situation amongst Blacks in the same age group has regressed from 18% to 15%. It therefore has regressed 3 percentage points. Thus a demographic dividend in South Africa is not possible because the bulge of youth in the age group 15-34 constitutes 75% of the 8 million who are not employed. The question then is what should be done?
What are the lessons for the continent of Africa
South Africa’s window of opportunity was obliterated by successive generations of apartheid system which guaranteed a demographic transition with a deliberate strategy that would deliver a youth bulge that would pass through life without the wherewithal skills to deliver a demographic dividend. Seventy percent of the unemployed are the youth in South Africa and they are also not educated. We have the numbers and statistics to demonstrate this dilemma.
In the rest of the continent we also know the youth remain unemployed and post matric education is not easily accessible. Fertility is still high so the bulge is emerging and sustained as the millennium development goals deliver on sanitation and hygiene. However deliberate strategies that transform a demographic transition into a demographic dividend are just as absent although for a different set of reasons as they were in apartheid South Africa. Or at least these strategies are not as obvious, focused and articulated as it happened in China. So what we see as an expanding consumer base in Africa is one that is just brought about by more of a growing population rather than a result of a dividend. Let us therefore not deceive ourselves, South Africa experiences the illusion of a demographic transition without a prospect of a demographic dividend and the National Development Plan provides us as South Africa the space to tackle this double whammy. Let the rest of the continent pick up lessons.
Interventions for Youth Development
South Africa has arrived at the “sweet spot” of demographic transition. The population has a proportionately high number of working-age people and a proportionately low number of young and old.
This means that the dependency ratio – the percentage of those over 64 and under 15 relative to the working-age population – is at a level where there are enough people of working age to support the non-working population.
If not managed, this window of opportunity could become the perfect storm. South Africans between the ages of 15 and 29 will make up more than a quarter of the total population until 2030. This is the demographic dividend that we are talking about.
The youth bulge is a common phenomenon in many developing countries, and in particular, in the least developed countries. It is often due to a stage of development where a country achieves success in reducing infant mortality but mothers still have a high fertility rate.
The result is that a large share of the population is comprised of children and young adults, and today’s children are tomorrow’s young adults.
The youth bulge theory posits that as this generation of young people enter the workforce, they will either help their nations move forward as demographic dividends. Or, due to the lack of opportunities, the unemployment rates will grow, leading to a huge number of unemployed young people causing social instability.
When developing the National Youth Policy 2020, we recognised the implications of this youth bulge, the opportunities that a demographic dividend could provide, and the necessity of developing government policy by looking through a “youth lens”.
With education and training being central to South Africa’s long term development, the National Youth Policy 2020 calls for schools to meet minimum norms and standards.
To improve retention rates and learner achievement by utilising inclusive, engaging, technology-based teaching methods and curricula that foster the development of values, skills, and self-esteem. The school system should produce young people who are able to solve challenges. The NYP 2020 aligns to the National Development Plan to improve the school system, including increasing the number of students achieving above 50 percent in literacy and mathematics, increasing learner retention rates to 90 percent and bolstering teacher training. Too many young people drop out of the schooling system. The NYP 2020 will also expand second chance opportunities for youth to complete education as well as alternative pathways to attain training and skills, and the support necessary to transition to higher education.
Not enough South African youth are in education, employment or work or training. As a result their prospects of participating in the economic mainstream are limited. The NYP 2020 builds on the NDP by developing a National Youth Service programme that will provide a million young people with opportunities to develop skills, enhance their employability while giving them service opportunities for citizenship and nation building. A mass entrepreneurship training programme will provide training to young people to start small scale enterprises. Through the NYDA, IDC and SEFA, business development support services and importantly, access to start-up capital will be expanded. The proposals within the NYP 2020 give expression to the African Youth Charter. These interventions will transit youth into employment and self-employment.
Combatting substance abuse and supporting healthy lifestyles is a priority area for the NYP 2020. Young people cannot be productive and cannot find stability while high on substances. Their healthy lifestyle will enhance their participation in the economy. The NYP 2020 will expand information, education and treatment options related to substance abuse among young people.
So where is the threat of the demographic bomb? The threat lies in our poor and often inappropriate response to the needs and aspirations of our young people.
The threat lies in the growing impatience among our young men and women as we saw in the Fees Must Fall Campaign. The threat lies in not adopting a youth lens when developing government policy thereby ignoring a critical constituency of society. The threat lies in not making the appropriate public and private investment in youth development, education, skills and training while throwing a few crumbs of the pie and expecting miracles.
We must learn from the uprisings in North Africa that were largely youth led. These uprisings were a response to the pressures that our continent faces with regards to employment, skills development and education. We may see more and more young people rising up demanding education and transformation if our strategies do not deal with the short and long term developmental pressures.
But it is far from doom and gloom. These young people are tired of being labelled as apathetic and lazy with a sense of entitlement. They are not a threat to be managed but instead they are a resource to be nurtured. They want a hand up and not a hand out. They want to be partners in their own development rather than recipients of services.
In conclusion
The window of opportunity is open to us here in South Africa and the rest of the African continent. There are good prospects for a demographic dividend. And we can reap them. But we have to act fast. We have to act steadily. We have to act in unison with young people. And we have to invest progressively.
