Address by the Deputy Minister in The Presidency, Mr Buti Manamela, at the Roundtable on Harnessing the Demographic Dividend through Investment in Youth at Lilongwe, Malawi
Programme Director
High Commission of the Republic of South Africa – Ms Thenjiwe Mtintso
Representative of the Government of Malawi
Representative of the African Union
Representative of the Pan African Youth Union
Fellow panellists
Representatives of youth organisations
Ladies and gentlemen
It gives me great pleasure to participate in this roundtable event. As you are aware, the African Union has adopted for 2017 its theme of “Harnessing the Demographic Dividend Through Investments in Youth”. In a few weeks’ time, our Continent’s leaders will gather in Addis Ababa to deliberate and take action on this very important theme.
This roundtable and other events are important to shed light, advocate and take action on the issue of investments in youth.
A demographic dividend occurs when there is a potential for economic growth that is propelled by favourable shifts in the age distribution of the population. It is not just the population size nor the rate at which the population grows, however, it is concerned with the transition of specific features of the population age structure. A country may benefit when it observes an increase in the proportion of the working age population while registering a decline in the dependence ratio provided. This may lead to a high savings rate, high levels of investment and rapid economic growth. A demographic dividend is nothing beyond lip service if it does not create hope for young people that they will one day reach their full potential.
For South Africa, the average age of the population in 1996 was 22 years, with 34% of the population aged 0–14.
As of 2016, we have seen the average age climbing to 25 years, with 30% of the population aged 0–14. The result sees an increase in the proportion of those of working age improving from 60% to 66% over the same period. More persons in the working age should signal that the underlying drivers of child mortality and fertility are trending in the right direction. A closer examination confirms that within SA we are seeing fertility rates drop to around 2.4 children. We have also observed a decrease in the Under-5 mortality, from 70 in 2002 to 44 in 2016 per 1000 live births, taken from the Mid-Year estimates of 2016. However, the societal changes that have impacted fertility and health improvements have been driven by circumstances so different to demographic theory.
Fertility declines in many countries all over the world have come off the back of improvements in education of the younger generation especially that of young women.
These improvements translate into women being more responsible for their reproductive conduct and rights and thus empowered to take appropriate family planning measures. The South African fertility decline was driven in part by the apartheid regime that made available contraceptive measures, to control population growth in support of the migratory working system. There was limited benevolence in that contraceptive use was not linked to improved education. This leaves us with greater challenges that now need to be addressed, and as such, the legacy of apartheid continues to linger.
Democratic South Africa has witnessed improvements in public health. This comes of the improved roll-out in access to primary health care, with births occurring in a health facility going from 83% in 1996 to 96% in 2016. This has led to substantive decline in Child and Infant Mortality rates.
We have to continue to improve the wellbeing of our people by ensuring that our youth contribute significantly and meaningfully to the working age population. All over Africa, the larger proportion of the productive population is young. This is the group that should provide the increased economic activity, provided that they have the skills to compete in a labour market that should absorb them.
The working age in South Africa is 15-64, according to our labour laws. The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) reported in the first quarter of 2017 that of the 433 000 people who joined the ranks of the unemployed, approximately 58% were young people aged 15-34. This tended to increase the youth unemployment rate by 1.6 percentage points to 38.6%. It is important to note the key factor of education! Without the necessary skills to compete in an economy that is biased towards skilled employment, what are the long term prospects for this youth?
The QLFS further reveals that the unemployment rate remained high among those with education level of less than matric at 33.1% which is 5.4 percentage points higher than the national average. When this unemployment rate is compared with that of graduates, we observe only 7.3%.
Education and employment remain the highest contributors to poverty. Scientific evidence tells us that those with lower levels of education do not stand better chances of netting employment. Young people continue to be affected the most by the triple scourge of unemployment, inequality and poverty.
Let us look at the broader picture, that is, the capacity of the current generation to invest in their children. The 2014/15 Income and Expenditure Survey (IES) shows the vast income disparities between the population groups within SA. The White population group averages an income of R444 000 and expenditure of R350 000 while the Black African majority with an income of just R93000 and an expenditure of R68 000.
Not only does this indicate that on average White households spend on around five times more than their Black counterparts, there is also a significant amount of savings that could be invested into their children. This is even worse given that the parents in Black households would have had the experience of an education system that actively blunted their educational outcomes.
The demographic dividend is an opportunity to crystallise our vision for the youth and see the path they are likely to take in life. The path as shown in South Africa is likely to be echoed across the entire continent. We will have to implement policies that are aimed at intervening in and reversing the current trends, and we have to do so with a great sense of urgency.
I would like to draw specific attention at educating the majority of the population with skills relevant to our economic realities and prospects. South Africa has made great strides in bringing in large numbers of new students into the tertiary academic fold. The results, on the surface, show great improvement in absolute numbers of Black African graduates students from around 16000 in 1996 to around 50 000 per year in 2014, as contrasted with White graduates of 21000 per year in 2014. However these figures masks structural issues that can only be laid bare by statistical data which shows the White population having around five times the proportion of graduates per 1000 relative to their population than Black Africans in 2014.
South Africa continues everyday to build a non-racial, non-sexist democratic society. Only 4.5% of persons aged 18-29 were enrolled at a higher education institution in the country in 2016. In a recent ranking of concerns of households – as recent as 2016 − the popular call from our people relates more to water supply, employment and cost of electricity. These are the issues that affect them everyday of their lives. The lack of educational facilities ranked near the end of the scale.
Almost 40 years ago, in 1976 to be exact, our youth of the time in South Africa challenged the minority system of apartheid to stop all mechanistic edifices of oppression. In doing so, they sought to achieve a lasting change that would put South Africa on a path to equality, fairness and justice. Their efforts cannot be forgotten, they serve as a basis to nourish future generations, for Africa and the world.
This sad legacy cannot be undone in the relatively short time that a democratic dispensation has been in place. In 2011 our country adopted a National Development Plan (NDP) that should deliver tangible results by 2030. We are not assuming that it is going to be plain sailing. We know fully well that to achieve the goals set out in the NDP will require a concerted effort by government, business and the public at large. We will have to regularly submit ourselves to a recalibration system only which empirical facts can vouch.
We have put education as the pillar of our NDP. We still face serious societal challenges though. The QLFS Q1 of 2017 reminds us again of the stark realities that we face. It tells us that there are 54% of young people aged 23 who are Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET). This is a sustainable position towards development. We cannot have a situation where 11% of Boys who should be at school, leave because they believe education is useless, where 18% of Girls leave due to family commitments. Our society must orientate itself towards understanding the true value of education.
The demographic dividend in Africa demands that we must align our policies towards improving and investing in our youth. And we should not relent in this. Our societies should believe in that it is a worthy cause to invest in our young population, from Early Childhood Development right through to the various educational paths. The future rests with them.
Our policies can only stand the test of time if they are based on credible numbers and sanitised tools of measurement that produce such numbers. We need as Africans to continue to guarantee the independence of our national systems of statistics. Those of us in the policy terrain should not shy away from defining what should be done in our nations, while we leave the independent processes of how to measure to those who we have charged with the noble cause of measurement.
The Post-2015 Development Agenda dictates to us all that we should leave no one behind. This call is even a lot more imperative for those of us in the policy making environment. Our continent Africa exists within the developing space in the milieu of the global scheme of development.
The Sustainable Development Goals require that we create strong partnerships among nations to survive. Only those who can adapt fast enough can sustain their survival.
Africa’s Agenda 2063 and Agenda 2030 together with their inherent Industrialisation Strategy will only become a reality if our continent can put her destiny in its people’s hands. A demographic dividend that leaves no-one behind is a way to go. The advent of the fourth industrial revolution continues to trust technology on our path. We can only succeed if we work together. An African saying goes that: Only those who have their calabashes ready will scoop water when the downpour comes. Let us stay ready. Failure is not an option.
I thank you.
