The UN COP17/CMP7 comes after the successful hosting of the Fifa Soccer World Cup last year. The difference between the two events is the impact of the outcomes on our world. We all know that if the outcome does not consider our future generations, they will not find the world as we found it.
Climate Change is a threat to sustainable development, also an opportunity to build international competitiveness, new economic infrastructure, sectors and activity; create prosperity and jobs; transform our economy and society; reduce poverty; improve health and quality of life for all.
In 2008, the government of South Africa announced that it would develop a national climate change response policy that would, among others map a socio-economic transition to a climate resilient and low-carbon economy with a view of enhancing our economic competitiveness as part of a pro-growth, pro-development and pro-jobs strategy.
The hosting of COP17/CMP7 demonstrates South Africa’s constructive engagement in the international negotiations, and provides an opportunity for our country to showcase our climate change response initiatives, raise awareness and outreach on climate change and leaving a green legacy for the conference.
The ruling party’s conference resolutions also identified interventions in several areas, including Social Transformation; Economic Transformation; International Relations; and a special resolution on Climate Change.
It is interesting and very encouraging to realise how the very ruling party’ 2009 manifesto set as one of the a priority areas , "creation of decent work and sustainable livelihoods" which linked very well with the green jobs and 2014 Millennium Development Goals (MDG) targets set out as follows:
- Develop and invest in programmes to create large numbers of ‘green jobs’
- Step up a massive programme on Expanded Public Works linked to infrastructure and meeting social.
Ladies and gentlemen, I am pleased to share with you some of the key pillars that the White Paper presents as the South African Government’s vision for an effective climate change response, and the long-term, just, transition to a climate resilient and low-carbon economy and society. South Africa’s response to climate change has two objectives:
- make a fair contribution to the global effort to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations so as to ensure that average global temperature do not increase to dangerous levels
- effectively manage unavoidable climate change impacts through interventions that build and sustain South Africa’s social, economic and environmental resilience and emergency response capacity.
Ladies and gentlemen South Africa advocates for adaptation and in that regard our country’s, climate change response policy includes a risk-based process to identify and prioritise short- and medium-term adaptation interventions to be addressed in sector plans.
The process also identifies the adaptation responses that require coordination between sectors and departments such as Agriculture and Water and that will be reviewed every five years.
We also identified the immediate future sectors that need particular attention, and those are water, agriculture and forestry, health, biodiversity and human settlements, specifically considering how shifts in climate will impact those economic, social and resource sectors.
Resilience to climate variability and climate change-related extreme weather events will be the ultimate basis for a future approach to disaster management.
On mitigation, programme Director, I am pleased to share with you that our country developed the national emissions trajectory, against which the combined national impact of mitigation actions will be measured. In this trajectory South Africa’s emissions will peak in the period 2020/25, remain stable for around a decade, and decline thereafter.
The adoption of a National Carbon Budget (NCB) for the country is central to the mitigation response, with the inaugural budget to be adopted within two years of the publication of this policy and reviewed biennially thereafter.
A mechanism to translate the desired emission reduction outcomes for each sector and sub-sector of the economy into company level desired , reduction outcomes for companies above a minimum threshold of emissions, as well as the timing of sector contribution to the 34% deviation from BAU and 42% by 2020, 2025 respectively.
I assume you will all agree with me that, the shift in global power and economics, has led to a reconsideration of the architecture of a global climate regime, with two paradigms emerging:
- The first paradigm is that of a comprehensive regime where developed countries commit to a top-down legally binding emission reduction targets, based on multilateral rules based system, i.e. Current Kyoto architecture.
- The second paradigm is that of incremental progress regime with a bottom-up approach to emission reductions, based on national circumstances with a potentially weaker multilateral obligation.
At the center of these competing paradigms is the international competitiveness and trade, as well as how to define the role of emerging economies in a changing world. On the bases of the above statement, we envisage a very tough process in Durban next week as the world kicks off in the most difficult conference of our era.
Programme Director, we all would remember that Mexico hosted CoP16/CMP6 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Cancun last year, and the Cancun Agreement decisions had three types of outcomes which are:
Reflecting agreements that have been reached thus far are e.g.
- Adaptation Framework
- Green Climate Fund
- Technology Mechanism
- Response Measure Forum.
While the above where agreed, the processes to elaborate the governance and operational procedures of these agreed to aspects, such as work programme on loss and damage, Green Climate Fund, etc still needs to be finalised and agreed in Durban. This according to some expects could be some of the low hanging fruits that parties could achieve.
Unfortunate for us is that, COP17/CMP7 has to deal with all the difficult issues that do not yet have full agreement and are facing Durban to tackle starting on Monday. Those issues include among others:
- Legal Form
- Second commitment period
- Intellectual Property Rights
- Equity.
Cancun did not address the key equity related political questions which have stalled progress in the negotiations.
The legal form of the Convention outcome & therefore the continuation of Kyoto whether it’s a two Treaty type legally binding outcome ( second CP under Kyoto); a single treaty type legally binding outcome (replace Kyoto); no legally binding outcome (kill Kyoto) or what the parties will agree on.
The level of ambition sufficient to prevent dangerous climate change in the form of a long term global emission reduction goal (2050) and a global peaking year; upfront common carbon accounting rules; supplementarity or limiting the use of offsets by Annex1 (A1) for compliance purposes.
The fair allocation of burden and cost in the form of addressing, means of implementation support to developing countries; comparability of effort and compliance among developed countries; fair share of carbon space or time for developing countries to transition; fair treatment of Intellectual Property Rights for the global climate commons.
The pre-Cancun negotiations have focused on building a transparent & comparable framework for the United States (US) under the Convention, while negotiating the 2nd commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol (KP).
The US refused to join the KP until China do so with China re-iterating its stance as a developing country with massive needs to eradicating poverty. This makes it difficult for other developed countries to adopt a second commitment period.
The European Union (EU), Norway and other Parties have recently indicated their willingness to join the second commitment period with some conditionalities on the US and major developing economies, and the G77 + China are currently informally discussing with the EU on the issue.
Emerging scenarios for a future climate change regime, the first scenario is the Kyoto Protocol architecture scenario, where developed country Parties enter a second commitment period, with non-KP countries committing to a future legally binding agreement under the Convention.
The second scenario is that of a provisional application of the second commitment period of the KP with comparable obligations for non-KP Parties, followed by a transitional period after the 2015 review when a future regime has been agreed to.
A third scenario is that of Durban deciding on a transitional period with effectively no KP-based obligations starting in 2012 and running until the end of the review in 2015.
Ladies and gentlemen, South Africa envisages a two track legally binding outcome that under the:
Convention provides for:
- legally binding targets for Annex I Parties
- Actions for Non Annex I Parties
- legally binding support by developed countries
- legal framework for adaptation.
Kyoto Protocol where:
- the second Commitment Period- for the 2CP to come into effect Parties will need to deposit or inscribe their commitments under the annex B of the KP
- level of ambition as per science to avoid dangerous climate change
- the second Commitment Period- for the 2CP to come into effect Parties will need to deposit or inscribe their commitments under the annex B of the KP
- level of ambition as per science to avoid dangerous climate change
- time / space for developing countries to transition to low carbon economies, and adapt to unavoidableimpacts
- the Conference of Africa Heads of State and Government (CAHOSCC) chaired by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi recently assessed that Durban will not conclude a comprehensive agreement, however the meeting must
- maintaining the integrity of the multilateral process by concluding the work of the Bali Roadmap, agreements reached in Cancun
- making a determination on the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and a comparable emission reduction regime for non-Kyoto Parties
- making adaptation central to a future climate change regime by pronouncing on concrete implementation of adaptation actions and matching with support; and
- focusing on finance discussions, particularly the design of the Green Climate Fund
- operationalisation of Cancun institutions on Technology, Adaptation, Finance, etc.
Ladies and gentlemen, we know that part from the challenges that Durban is facing, the world is looking up to COP17 to make some kind of progress in dealing with the issues that I highlighted. We share the same sentiments as South Africa, but we rely on the mood and tempo of the negotiations. Negotiations are always unpredictable and we can only wait for the final day.
I thank you.
