L Hendricks: Climate Change Summit

3 March 2009

Ministers
Members of Executive Councils
Mayors
Ambassadors
Directors General
Honoured guests
International observers
Ladies and gentlemen

Introduction

Chairperson, the overwhelming scientific consensus is that we must continue
to prevent the emission of green house gasses that cause climate change. The
longer we delay taking action, the greater the mitigation and adaptation costs
will be. These costs are not only measured in percentages of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) or loss of habitat or species, but most importantly in terms of
the millions of human lives that are at risk.

Background

Just as important as mitigation is, adapting to climate change must now
become a priority. Although mitigation reduces the future cost of adaptation,
it will never be an either/or situation and our adaptation response is
critical. Developing countries will be the most vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change and the immediate mitigation actions will influence the amount
of spending required in the future for adaptation.

The dual challenge is therefore to avoid the unmanageable through
mitigation, and manage the unavoidable through adaptation. We must move from
the era of identifying problems to the era of implementing solutions. Developed
nations such as the United State of America (USA), which have historically
contributed most to this problem, should start to accept their responsibilities
to lead in combating climate change and to assist vulnerable developing
countries to adapt to, and deal with, the devastating impacts.

Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and
change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity. Certain regions,
especially in Southern Africa, are at risk from increasing water stress which
will have significant impacts on livelihoods of people in all sectors of
society but more particularly the poor. The number of people exposed to water
stress will multiply and it is projected that by 2020, between 75 million and
250 million people will be exposed to increased water stress due to climate
change.

Infrastructure, industrial production, income generating activities and
human livelihood strategies will be significantly affected. Furthermore, the
productive land area will decrease and agricultural production, including
access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected to be
severely compromised. The area of arable land suitable for agriculture, the
length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins
of semi-arid and arid areas are expected to decrease. This would further
adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition on the continent. In
some countries, yields from rain fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%
by 2020. Local food supplies are projected to be negatively affected including
decreasing fisheries resources. Towards the end of the 21st century, the
projected sea level rise will affect low lying coastal areas with large
populations and, according to the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), the cost of adaptation in Africa could amount to at least 5% to 10% of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

South Africa's ecosystems seem particularly vulnerable to this risk, with
many endemic species at risk in the Fynbos, Succulent Karoo and other
ecosystems. Up to 55% of our current biomass in South Africa will be
detrimentally affected in the next 50 years with unmitigated climate change.
Biodiversity assets directly underpin economic activity and human livelihoods
and the ecosystem services they provide nurture environmental quality.

In terms of food security, we face a significant decrease in agricultural
productivity with staple crops such as maize declining by as much as 20% in the
drier western regions. Heat stress is already having impacts on productivity
and quality within the deciduous export fruit sector. The livestock sector is
also becoming increasingly vulnerable.

While we have much to learn of our vulnerability and adaptive capacity, in
the face of these risks, the debate on climate change in our country is one on
national, economic and environmental security. Those least able to adapt are
likely to be the poor, and thus an emerging theme of climate change is that
this is also a poverty issue. We have therefore decided to take decisive
action. We are simply refusing to place our long term development,
competitiveness and survival at risk by not taking action in the short and
medium term. We also understand that all nations would have to do more, albeit
in a differentiated way.

I am therefore confident that this summit will lead to an action plan that
will assist with our joint efforts to integrate adaptation policies and
measures with our national, provincial and local sustainable development
strategies. We must: find innovative ways of adapting to the inevitable impacts
of climate change. We must ask how we deal with the risks and threats to
existing infrastructure and current economic and development activities. We
must also ask how climate resilient development could be promoted in various
sectors such as water, agriculture, food security, health, disaster management
and coastal management.

The emphasis should be on “balance”. Those who see a choice between
mitigation and adaptation present false alternatives. We must pursue both. In
developing countries, actions for mitigation and adaptation to climate change
are best addressed within the overall framework of “sustainable
development”.

In the international negotiations, moving to the implementation of
high-priority adaptation activities is very urgent. The global response must
move from planning to implementation. The challenge is to mobilise adequate
funding at the scale required as the current levels of funding are too low.
Without adequate and predictable international streams of finance for
adaptation activities, Africa will have little chance to adapt to the
devastating impacts. On the basis of the principles of “equity,” “polluter
pays” and “common but differentiated responsibilities,” developed countries
should take the lead in providing new and additional funding for adaptation
activities. The scale of the climate change challenge is enormous and the 2008
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) report confirmed
that the currently available multilateral funding to address the challenge of
climate change falls dramatically short of what is required, just for
developing countries it is estimated that between 28 to 67 billion USD will be
required annually.

Disaster Management

Although the presentations and discussions tomorrow will go into the detail
about current and projected climate change impacts, we already know that Africa
is likely to be severely impacted and that South Africa will not escape these
impacts. The increase in the frequency, range and ferocity of extreme weather
events has obvious implications as we have witnessed over the last 10 days in
KwaZulu-Natal, the Western Cape and here in Gauteng. With regard to these
extreme weather events like storms, ocean storm surges and floods, in the short
term, we must continue to strengthen our emergency response and disaster
management capacity.

Thankfully many of the building blocks for this increased reactive capacity
are already in place with the National Disaster Management Act setting a solid
regulatory basis for efficient and effective responses. While our National
Disaster Management Centre and many provincial and municipal disaster
management centres are in full operation, there remains a need to improve these
facilities to be able to provide life saving services improving early warning
systems and the capacity for disaster management. Our development plans must
also take into account the implications of climate change, for example, the
Department of Water Affairs in Forestry is undertaking a re-assessment of our
flood lines to assist planners in ensuring that new and existing infrastructure
takes the impacts of new flood potential into account.

In order to assist and focus these efforts, the Department of Science and
Technology is also developing the National Climate Change Vulnerability Atlas
that will provide accurate and up to date information on what impacts can be
expected and which areas of the country are most vulnerable to these impacts.
This Atlas will become a key planning reference document for planners and
developers.

Water Affairs

But adaptation in the built environment is only one area of our adaptive
focus. Within my own portfolio, climate change has serious implications for our
water resources and as water stressed country, any threat to our water
resources must be considered to be serious. We will need to adapt to changes in
rainfall patterns in the way we store, transfer and use water. As the
department committed to during the 2005 National Climate Change Conference, we
will continue to:
* consider climate change impacts in our water conservation and demand
management initiatives,
* review and reassess the ways in which South Africa operates its dams and
quantifies the ecological reserve to account for a changing climate,
* review the details of water-sharing agreements in the light of new physical
realities,
* examine the design and implementation of the water allocation reform process
to ensure that climate change considerations are taken into account, and
* design and implement an outreach strategy to create awareness of the
implications of climate change among stakeholders and customers in the water
sector.

Yesterday I launched the Water for Growth and Development Framework, this
framework represents our commitment to water security for our people, the
economy, and the environment and considers the critical role of climate change
in relation to our planning processes in terms of adaptation.

Our water resource management systems have provided the foundation for the
country’s socio-economic growth for years, supporting the provision of water
supply, sanitation, electricity, recreation and protecting us against floods.
These limited water resources are however already stressed and additional
stress from climate change will only intensify the competition for water.

As understanding of climate change improves, the challenge for our water
sector is to develop and implement strategies that improve resilience, reduce
risk, and increase sustainability for water and flood management systems and
the eco-systems upon which they depend. Water is an absolute necessity for
sustainable development. We need to consider these likelihoods by assessing the
development impact of climate change on water resources.

Reduced availability and quality of water will impact adversely on measures
to secure food for our people, safeguard the environment, grow the economy,
ensure human health and develop suitable infrastructure. While our country’s
water resources management system has some capacity to cope with climate
variability, extreme weather events resulting in increased droughts and floods
will strain that capacity to meet future needs.

Responding to climate change is basically an attempt to manage an uncertain
future. Whilst we know the causes, we are not able to accurately predict the
effects. This limits our ability to put measures to mitigate and adapt. We do
however recognise that solutions are interlinked and should therefore be
coordinated. We also know that some of these solutions will be costly, but
doing nothing will cost us our lives! A multi-faceted problem requires a
multi-faceted response. Therefore, as a Department, we have proposing an array
of adaptive measures to deal with hydrological risks attributed to climate
change.

Firstly, we understand the need for a cooperative government programme led
by the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. We will therefore
continue to participate actively in cooperative engagements to develop measures
to respond to what is essentially a difficult natural phenomenon. At this stage
we are collating our input into the development of the national climate change
response policy. We will also use this policy to guide our own future actions,
especially related to mitigation.

Secondly, we have taken a leadership role and acknowledge the need to
respond as a very significant challenge. We now have a dedicated team of
specialists who are developing a comprehensive response strategy for the water
sector. The development of the strategy is necessitated by a strong call for
our sector to adapt to potential effects of climate change. Proposals from this
strategy will be integrated into the revision of our National Water Resources
Strategy and will form part of a broader plan to ensure that we protect,
develop and conserve our water resources to meet future needs.

Amongst others, the strategy will look at the following:
* developing tools for data-modelling to track emerging hydrological patterns
and the impact on our water resources. These instruments will provide us with
information to plan confidently
* developing mechanisms for early warning systems including predicting floods
and timeously responding to potential risks
* developing adaptation initiatives that target those catchments that are most
vulnerable to climate risks based on current predictions
* developing reconciliation strategies to manage demand in urban centres, where
increased urbanisation and industrial development is putting pressure on the
water resources
* develop investment strategies to develop the necessary infrastructure for
water storage and flood management
* develop new technologies for water treatment to respond to chemical changes
caused by the high temperatures
* develop aggressive water conservation and demand strategies to ensure
efficient water use
* develop measures to assess carbon footprints from our infrastructure and
propose ways of reducing these.

Agriculture

On agriculture and water in a climate change context, important water
related legislation and policy which revolves explicitly and implicitly around
agricultural land already exists in many countries, e.g. legislation on stream
flow reduction activities, on water use licensing for irrigation, water
allocation and soil conservation. This confirms that the dynamic
inter-relationship between water and agriculture under present climatic
conditions is already a highly symbiotic one. Climatic driven changes will
therefore have an impact on water availability in the soil as well as
agricultural practices and production, while any impacts of climate on
agricultural practices and production will have an affect on water availability
simultaneously.

The agricultural sector is another important area where we must concentrate
our climate change adaptation efforts and specific actions could focus on
modifying tilling practices, employment for displaced workers, integration of
catchment areas, adopting appropriate technology and strengthening agricultural
extension services. In this sector, key challenges are developing more drought
and flood resistant crops and considering crop switching strategies. It will
also be critically important to find ways of communicating information about
climate scenarios and adaptation options to subsistence farmers and rural
communities.

Here again, the Department of Agriculture and the Agricultural Research
Council, among others, are actively implementing their commitments made during
the 2005 National Climate Change Conference, including:
* ensuring that climate change considerations are included in the evaluation of
new agricultural research and development projects,
* reviewing and revising agricultural policy to ensure climate change
resilience, and
* ensuring that climate change is fully considered and reflected in the four
elements of agricultural early warning systems, including: prior risk
knowledge, monitoring and warning services, dissemination of
warnings/information, and response capacity.

Health

Another area requiring attention is health. According to the IPCC’s fourth
assessment report, at a global scale, climate change impacts are likely to
affect the health status of millions of people through:
* increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, and implications for
child growth and development,
* increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires
and droughts,
* increased burden of diarrhoeal disease,
* increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher
concentrations of ground-level ozone related to climate change, and
* the altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors.

In respect of vulnerable people living in urban communities, urban slums and
squatter settlements are often located in areas subject to landslides, floods
and other natural hazards. Lack of water and sanitation in these settlements
are not only problems in themselves, but also increase the difficulty of
controlling disease reservoirs and vectors, facilitating the emergence and
re-emergence of water-borne and other diseases. The potential for climate
change to intensify or
alter flood patterns may also become a major additional driver of future health
risks from flooding. Combined with declining economies, unplanned urbanisation
may affect the burden and control of malaria, with the disease burden
increasing among urban dwellers.

Currently, approximately 200 million people in Africa (24.6% of the total
population) live in urban settings where they are at risk of malaria. In
respect to Africa specifically, the IPCC notes that in mapping the malaria risk
in Africa, they have noted a possible expansion and contraction, depending on
location, of climatically suitable areas for malaria. If no action is taken,
vector borne diseases such as malaria will spread into disease-free areas in
South Africa with considerable associated costs.

As early as 2000, the South African country study on the possible impacts of
climate change predicted that possible health impacts are likely to include
increased infectious diseases as well as weather related mortality such as heat
stress. It is clear that something must be done to build up our resilience to
the impacts of climate change. From a health perspective, government is
committed to accelerating our advance towards the achievement of the goal of
health for all. In this regard, the IPCC makes it clear that the impacts of
climate change in Africa are likely to be greatest where they co-occur with a
range of other stresses, including unequal access to resources, enhanced food
insecurity and poor health management systems. Thus, it is imperative that we
accelerate all our activities to improve our health management systems and the
health profiles of all South Africans.

The “Midrand Plan of Action” that emerged from government’s 2005 National
Conference on Climate Change noted, among others, that the health sector
urgently requires an updated assessment of its vulnerability to climate change.
To this end, the Department of Health will be an active participant in the
compilation of South Africa’s second national communication to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change which will, among others, assess
and evaluate all potential health related climate change impacts. Furthermore,
and in line with South Africa’s 2004 National Climate Change Response Strategy,
the Department of Health will continue to improve and extend its monitoring and
forecasting systems to warn of disease outbreaks to counteract possible climate
change health impacts and enable prior planning for effective sustainable
interventions. Increased surveillance, monitoring and control of areas that are
prone to, and will be affected by, diseases such as malaria and Bilharzia will
also be required.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it is clear that climate change will affect us all and that
we will all have to work together as a nation to fight its causes and build our
resilience to its impacts. In this regard government has a clear role to play,
as it is the tragic irony of climate change that, although the poor have made
little contribution to the cause of climate change, it is the poor who are the
most vulnerable to its impacts.

Thank you

Issued by: Department of Water Affairs and Forestry
3 March 2009
Source: Department of Water Affairs and Forestry (http://www.dwaf.gov.za)