M van Schalkwyk: 14th Session of Commission for Atmospheric Sciences of
WMO

16 February 2006

Weather, air quality and climate change: cutting-edge Science to benefit all
South Africans
 
Introduction

Speaking in 1965, the founding Director of the United States (US) National
Centre for Atmospheric Research, Dr Walter Orr Roberts, made the observation
that: “for the benefit of mankind we need to attain the maximum possible
mastery of our atmospheric environment the enemy is hail, blizzards, floods,
droughts and hurricanes. The enemy is the innate intransigence and
inscrutability of nature.”

In December 1998 an elderly gentleman was quietly shopping in a local
pharmacy in Umtata, in the Eastern Cape Province.  In less time than it
takes to turn around, his peace of mind was shattered when the plate-glass
window of the shop exploded inwards as a tornado struck the town. Killing 17
people and damaging more than R90 million worth of property, this single
extreme weather event came close to claiming an even greater cost, the elderly
gentleman who had no warning of the tornado, was also the President of South
Africa – Nelson Mandela.  Clearly weather itself does not
discriminate.  It affects all people with seemingly equal randomness and
apparent disregard for nationality, stature or status but the reality is that
natural disasters make the greatest impact on those nations least able to
afford the damage.

According to the World Bank more than 95% of disaster-related deaths occur
in developing countries and as we celebrate today the first anniversary of the
coming into force of the Kyoto Protocol, we all know that it is Africa, your
RA1 region - that stands amongst the most vulnerable to the effects of climate
change.  It is my great privilege therefore to formally welcome you all to
Cape Town, to South Africa and for the first time in the history of the CAS, to
the African continent. On behalf of the people of our country, I would like to
thank you for choosing this place, also known as the Cape of Storms, for this
event.
 
Recent South African Weather Service Achievements

Chairperson, although South Africa was only readmitted to the WMO in 1994,
making us one of the ‘younger’ member states, we have already built a proud
track record of regional and international collaboration. From active service
in the committees of the CAS, to the work done on the WMO’s African Joint
Procurement Project and to radar collaboration work in Botswana and Mozambique,
further linking our regional radar networks within the Southern African
Development Community (SADC). 
 
In the context of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) we are
determined to work with our regional neighbours to improve the accuracy of our
weather data, forecasts and analysis. This is of particular importance in
improving regional responses to extreme weather events like the severe flooding
in Mozambique in 2000, which saw the South African National Defence Force
(SANDF) assisting the rescue missions in partnership with Mozambican
authorities. Better radar integration and more effective regional weather
forecasting will allow more timeous warnings, more appropriate preparations and
more rapid disaster management in Southern Africa.

I would like to take a brief moment to acknowledge and pay tribute to some
of the more recent achievements of our South African Weather Service, under the
leadership of the Chairperson of the Board, Sizeka Rensburg and her team. These
include the national lightning detection network that has now been established
– which will allow us to detect lightning, conduct research and issue timeous
warnings to both the public and commercial clients; the acquisition of a new
and faster supercomputer for weather modelling and more accurate forecasting
and the replacement of 13 manual weather stations with semi-automatic ones
since early 2005 – including five such stations in the poorly observed,
vulnerable rural areas of the Eastern Cape to help avoid situations such as the
one in which our former President found himself in 1998.

It is also my pleasure to ask that you join me in recognising a truly
prestigious award that has been earned by our South African Weather Service and
our Water Research Commission – the Excellence Award from the United Arab
Emirates for work done in advancing the science and practice of weather
modification. The South African research effort into rainfall enhancement
started in 1971 and has made a unique contribution to this field through the
development of hygroscopic seeding technology. I believe that the formal award
will be made later in the conference, but would ask that you join me now in
congratulating our team on this significant achievement.

New Air Quality Responsibility for SAWS and New SA Capacity

Chairperson, one of the most pressing environmental health challenges facing
both the developed and developing world is the issue of air quality. 
Unacceptable concentrations of cancer-causing pollutants have been measured in
and around our own industrial centres. Every winter our people cough and choke
from breathing a vile cocktail of airborne pollution that remains trapped under
temperature inversion layers. Every year South Africa spends more than R4
billion on respiratory health problems related to air pollution.

We have acted to make a change, our new Air Quality Act, passed by
Parliament in 2004, provides for the setting of standards, both for the quality
of air that we breathe and for what may be released into that air. We will also
be announcing for public comment, before the end of March, the first set of
ambient air quality standards for South Africa and the first “controlled
emitter” in terms of our new law.

To provide the backbone of our new Air Quality management, South Africa is
also developing an Air Quality Information System to provide us with accurate,
current, relevant and complete information for informed air quality
decision-making. I am pleased to announce that we have taken an in-principle
decision to locate this function within our South African Weather Service as
the institution best placed to assume this key new environmental monitoring
role and are conducting a feasibility study to determine the modalities that
this will entail.

A new era for combating global climate change

Chairperson, it has been said that “Climate is what we expect…weather is
what we get”. With the fundamental changes that human-induced climate change is
bringing to our world however, that distinction may soon become less humorous,
as our expectations become less and less optimistic. 
 
2006 is the International Year of Deserts and Desertification. In the words of
the UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, this “is one of the world’s most alarming
processes of environmental degradation”, affecting one third of the earth’s
surface, more than 4 billion hectares and over a billion people. Moreover, it
has potentially devastating social and economic costs. Like other water-scarce,
agriculturally-dependent, developing countries, South Africa is exceptionally
vulnerable to these changes and this is why our government has placed the
national response to climate change at the forefront of our governance
priorities.

It is my hope that, as CAS participants, many here today will have the
opportunity to visit our spectacular Cape Point Nature Reserve and the Cape
Point Global Atmosphere Watch Station. As one of only 24 WMO global stations,
it has collected ample evidence of the challenges of climate change. Ambient
background concentrations of Carbon Dioxide measured at the Cape Point
laboratory have recently reached the level of 370 parts per million. This
amounts to an increase of about 5.4% during the past 10 years
alone. 
 
As we celebrate the first anniversary of the coming into force of the Kyoto
Protocol, I think we should also be celebrating a new era in combating global
climate change. With the operationalisation of the Kyoto Protocol following the
Montreal meetings last December, Kyoto has become the only multi-lateral
environmental agreement with legally binding consequences for those parties who
do not comply. Kyoto alone however is not enough and with the first commitment
period ending in 2012 work must start now on two tracks – the first, on deeper
emission cuts by developed countries under Kyoto and the second, broadening and
strengthening long-term co-operative action to address climate change and
enhancing implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and
its instruments. 

As a developing country we believe in the importance of a future framework
for action on climate change that is marked by a balance between adaptation and
mitigation. It is also our view that existing commitments under the Convention
should be given further content in support of sustainable development
imperatives, as well as emission reductions. We are very aware of the need to
deal with the unintended consequences of climate change mitigation measures
taken by developed countries on the economies of some developing countries.
This will require concerted international support for the diversification of
the economies of those countries affected, to ensure that climate change action
is aligned with sustainable development objectives.

Conclusion

Chairperson, to find patterns in what would otherwise be chaos; to predict,
with increasing accuracy, the behaviour of nature itself - these are the
Herculean tasks which fall to the members of the WMO and its associated
commissions and institutions. Oscar Wilde once wrote that “Conversation about
the weather is the last refuge of the unimaginative”, yet for the next eight
days this 14th Session of the CAS will occupy some of the most creative and
skilled scientific minds from around the world.

It is work that is critical, not only to the developed and industrialised
nations but increasingly to developing countries as well. To have truly global
value, meteorology must make a real difference to the everyday lives of people
across the globe. It is not enough to only invest in monitoring and research
capacity, on climate change for instance, what is more important is to project
these climate change impacts for different sectors and support the development
of robust climate change adaptation strategies. The challenge is, for example,
to integrate forecast changes into local development planning, to inform wise
infrastructure investments, or to support research on the impacts of changed
weather patterns on specific crops, allowing farmers to switch to more suitable
or more resilient varieties. Although much progress has been made
internationally in this regard, this applied science has not significantly
penetrated Africa and other developing nations, in particular the small island
states and the least developed countries of the world.  This then is our
shared challenge.
 
I wish you every success in the remainder of your deliberations, as well as a
truly enjoyable experience of our South African hospitality – which is as much
about the warmth of our people as it is about our weather.

Issued by: Ministry of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
16 February 2006