Agriculture on summer climate conditions

Climate advisory for summer 2007/08

16 October 2007

Above-normal rainfall conditions were experienced in the winter rainfall
regions. However, the distribution was not good for agricultural purposes in
some areas. Pests and diseases were also reported in some areas. As a result,
estimated yield for winter crops has declined as compared to last year,
according to Committee for Environmental Co-ordination (CEC).

A series of cold spells were experienced over the country throughout the
winter season. The drought conditions that were experienced in the 2006/07
summer season resulted in lower dam levels and yields for summer crops with the
exception of the Western Cape. The decrease in the underground water level is a
serious concern in some areas.

According to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's (FEWSNET) recently
concluded National Vulnerability Assessments the food insecure population in
the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region has doubled from about
3,1 million last year to 6,1 million this year.

Grain availability in the region remains insufficient to cover staple food
requirements in the countries facing large production deficits. Continuing
drought, poor veld management practices and veld fires aggravated the already
poor veld condition, which led to poor livestock condition in most of the
country with reported mortalities in other areas.

Farmers are advised to maintain good farming practices. Overstocking must
also be avoided by controlling the stock to suit the number of camps and
availability of feed. The appropriate contingency plans have to be in place for
grazing livestock capacity.

Wet and warm conditions are expected over the summer rainfall areas.
Enhanced probabilities of favourable rainfall conditions are forecast from
year-end onward over the summer rainfall regions in anticipation of a La Niña
phenomenon.

Temperatures are expected to be above-normal over the entire forecast
region. Precautions for pests and diseases associated with these conditions
must be in place. Farmers should approach the summer season with caution
because of the limited soil moisture and expected warm temperatures. Occasional
heat waves with humid conditions are possible throughout the summer season.
Contingency plans for evaporative loss of moisture as result of high
temperatures need to be in place. Thunderstorms usually associated with flash
floods, strong winds, hail and lightning are likely this summer season because
of expected rains and high temperatures. Precautionary measures therefore
should also be in place.

Although the Department of Agriculture (DoA) requested funds from the
National Treasury for relief to farmers from experienced natural disasters,
farmers are encouraged to utilise supplementary feed during the first half of
the summer season in order to ensure a full veld recovery.

These disasters include, among others, drought and veld fires which
devastated most of the country. Farmers are also advised to practise risk
measures and maintain good veld management to minimise post-disaster
assistance.

As this is the summer season, veld fires might be experienced in some winter
rainfall regions, especially by the end of this year. Measures for fires such
as firebreaks and others must be in place as indicated in the National Veld and
Forest Fire Act (Act No. 101 of 1998).

The Disaster Management Act (Act No. 57 of 2002) urges provinces,
individuals and farmers to assess and prevent or reduce the risk of disasters
using early warning information.

Enquiries:
Steve Galane
Tel: 012 319 7312
Cell: 083 635 7346

Issued by: Department of Agriculture
16 October 2007

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