Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries on National Agro-meteorological Committee advisory

National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) Advisory on the 2018/19 spring and summer seasons

Statement from Climate Change and Disaster Management

I. Introduction

In July, rainfall received was below normal over most parts of the country with some areas indicating above normal rainfall mainly in the North West and parts of the Northern Cape.

During August above normal rainfall was recorded in parts of the Free State, Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga becoming below normal in other regions of the country.

In September the Western Cape, the western parts of the Northern Cape, Eastern Cape and parts of KwaZulu-Natal received above normal rainfall. Remaining regions of the country received below normal rainfall.

For the season July to September, mostly the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and parts of Free State received near normal rainfall with patches of above normal; elsewhere rainfall was below normal.

II. Current conditions

Conditions in provinces during August/ September 2018

Dry conditions prevailed over most parts of the country with water restrictions still in place in some parts. Livestock is in reasonable condition in most areas except for communal areas where the conditions are poor. Veld fires have been reported in Free State, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga. The average levels of major dams in most provinces have increased.

III. Market information

Major grain commodities

FNB stated that yellow maize prices were lower and eased for white maize. Prices are expected to remain sideways with limited upside on rand recovery and supply pressure. The wheat market saw gains and the rand volatility will remain the major driver in price direction in the short term. Oilseed prices were mixed and it is still expected that prices will remain under pressure and trend sideways in the short term.

Livestock domestic markets

According to ABSA, beef prices were mixed across different categories. Prices are expected to follow an upward trend due to improvement in demand during the warmer months. Mutton and lamb prices were mostly higher; the local low herd numbers for sheep limit supplies and support meat prices. Pork prices strengthened, trading mostly higher across the different categories. The industry may benefit from the underlying support from the higher red meat prices in line with seasonality. Poultry prices were also higher; it is expected that prices will start to improve due to better demand and in line with seasonality.

VI. SADC region

The food security outlook for September 2018 to January 2019 by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicates that parts of Southern Africa including DRC, Lesotho, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Madagascar are expected to experience an earlier than normal lean season as confirmed by recent FEWS NET assessments.

The lean season, which typically begins in December, is expected to start as early as September/October this year. Currently, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present across much of Zimbabwe, Southern Madagascar, Southern Mozambique and Eastern DRC. The conflict in DRC is also a major driver of acute food insecurity.

Markets are generally well supplied with staple foods due to above-average regional supply for the 2018/19 marketing year.

 Regional trade, supported by above-average production in South Africa and good carryover stocks, is currently helping maintain stability on most markets.

Nonetheless, localised erratic supplies of staple food are prevailing in some areas such as Southern Zimbabwe. Maize prices exhibit mixed trends. In Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique prices are below or slightly above average, while in Zambia, Madagascar and DRC prices are well above average.

FEWS NET furthermore stated that in the dry season, second season harvests were below average in Malawi and Mozambique, and in Southern Madagascar pasture and browse are atypically scarce. International and regional forecasts confirm that there is an increased likelihood of an El Niño event occurring during the 2018-2019 rainy season in Southern Africa. Forecasters indicate a high likelihood for below-average rainfall across the region during the rainy season. This will likely have negative impacts on the coming agriculture season both in terms of harvests and labor opportunities.

[The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a set of standardized tools that aims at providing a "common currency" for classifying the severity and magnitude of food insecurity.]

Source: http://fews.net/southern-africa

V. Rainfall and temperature forecast

Above-normal rainfall is expected over most of the summer rainfall areas during early summer but below-normal during mid-summer (Dec-Jan-Feb). Below-normal rainfall is also expected over the north-eastern parts of the Eastern Cape and southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal during late spring and mid-summer. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Users are encouraged to continually check updates i.e. seasonal forecasts and utilize 7 day weather forecasts for short term planning.

VI. Conclusions and recommendations

Although rainfall has been received in drought stricken provinces conditions have not significantly improved. Summer rainfall regions have generally reported reasonable to poor conditions of livestock and the veld. Above normal rainfall is anticipated for most summer rainfall areas during early summer (Nov-Dec-Jan), however below normal rainfall is expected for the summer rainfall areas during mid-summer (Dec-Jan-Feb). Below normal rainfall is also expected over the north-eastern parts of the Eastern Cape and southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal during late spring and mid-summer.

The South African Weather Service further states that in general a drier and warmer summer season is expected, however it is not expected to be consistent throughout the whole of summer. This may have a more negative impact on agriculture, especially dryland agriculture which relies on consistent rain.

With the current conditions in mind as well as the seasonal forecast, farmers are advised to continually conserve water and other resources in accordance with the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act 1983, (Act No. 43 of 1983). Dryland farmers are advised to wait for sufficient moisture before planting and consider drought short season cultivars as predominantly dry conditions are anticipated. They are also advised to consider other alternative crops such as sorghum. Moreover, they are advised to be conservative in their planting i.e. planting density/cultivar/area being planted.

Farmers using irrigation should be mindful of the forecast i.e. dam levels might not be replenished as quickly while irrigating due to the lower rainfall possibility and high temperatures. Farmers must also comply with water restrictions in their areas. All farmers should follow the weather and climate forecast regularly so as to make informed decisions.

Livestock must continually be kept in line with carrying capacity of the veld, and be provided with additional feed such as relevant licks. They should also be provided with enough water points on the farm as well as shelter during bad weather conditions.

The risk remains high for conditions conducive for veld fires as the veld is dry in areas with sufficient biomass, and veld fires have been reported in several provinces. Farmers are encouraged to maintain firebreaks and adhere to veld fire warnings. Episodes of localized flooding resulting from thunderstorms are likely and preventative measures should be in place. Heat waves are also likely to occur during summer and therefore measures to combat these should be in place. Farmers are encouraged to implement measures provided in the early warning information issued.

Challenges of communication facilities in most districts in the provinces inhibit both dissemination and access to information and thus undermining the effectiveness of an early warning system.

Continuous support to Early Warning Committee and National Agro-Meteorological committee members will ensure the effective dissemination of early warning information as an integral component of an effective Early Warning System in support of disaster risk reduction.

Participation in the established study groups and Fire Protection Associations among farming communities will encourage knowledge sharing, good farming practices as well as effective implementation of the disaster risk reduction measures. Reporting of disaster risk issues to the local office including diseases and pests outbreak will ensure immediate attention and controlling of incidences.

The following form part of the recommendations in the full advisory for disaster risk reduction:

  • Contingency plans for veld fires.
  • Adherence to the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act (No. 43 of 1983).

DAFF through CCDM will continue to revisit the provinces for monitoring and evaluation purposes.

For a complete advisory, visit the DAFF website www.daff.gov.za or contact D: CCDM for more information: -
Tel: 012 309 5722/23
Fax: 012 309 5878.

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