Statement from Climate Change and Disaster Management
I. Introduction
Below normal rainfall was received during June but near normal in the south-western parts of the country with patches of above normal.
In July the rainfall remained below normal countrywide with above normal rainfall patches in the north-east.
August received near normal to above normal rainfall mainly in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, some coastal areas of KwaZulu-Natal and the eastern parts of Mpumalanga and Limpopo. Below normal rainfall was received in other regions of the country.
2. Current conditions
Conditions in provinces during July/ August 2017
The veld in general is reportedly in reasonable condition except in the drought stricken areas.
Winter crops are in reasonable to good condition but poor in the Western Cape. A case of Fall Army Worm affected winter maize in the Vhembe District in Limpopo Province. Veld fires were reported in several Provinces.
The average level of major dams is high in most provinces but has decreased in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape.
3. Market information
Major grain commodities
ABSA stated that both yellow and white maize prices decreased and the slow rate of exports may lead to higher carry-over stocks of maize in the domestic market thus causing prices to remain sideways in the coming months.
Wheat prices also decreased and currently the Swartland area has an irrigation problem. They have been getting between 5-10 mm irrigation weekly, which helps with the wheat at the moment but the dams remain relatively empty.
The wheat harvest is at its lowest since the past 15 years in terms of stock levels. Oilseed prices traded higher, soybean and sunflower prices found support in the higher international prices which were boosted by larger than expected export demand from China.
Livestock domestic markets
ABSA stated that beef prices were mixed, but still remain generally strong and it is expected that beef prices may gain support from increased demand during month end.
Lamb and mutton prices were also mixed and prices may gain support from less availability of animals in the market.
The herd rebuilding process is underway, limiting the amount of sheep to be slaughtered; also consumer resistance to high lamb and mutton prices may increase price risk.
Lamb and mutton remain the most expensive meat on the market. Pork prices were mixed and the industry is exploring export markets in countries such as Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and India, some South African farmers are already exporting successfully to countries in Africa.
It is expected that pork prices may gain underlying support from higher lamb, mutton and beef prices.
Poultry prices were mostly higher, and remain the least expensive protein meat, which may encourage consumer demand. It is expected that production losses associated with bird flu outbreaks may support prices.
VI. SADC region
The August 2017 FEWS NET report indicates that the post-harvest period continues and most households across the region are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes. For countries with above-average harvests this season, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to continue through January 2018.
However, parts of central and eastern DRC continue to be the worst affected areas in the region because of conflict and drought conditions and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) for the entire outlook period. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are being experienced in chronically food insecure parts of Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Madagascar and these outcomes are likely to further deteriorate into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by October. Prices continue to significantly decline in several countries in the region.
This decrease is benefiting urban communities, but poor rural households that normally rely on income from crops sales are being adversely affected. In Malawi and Zimbabwe maize grain prices are significantly lower than in previous years and is selling for as low as MWK 50/kg and USD$ 0.11/kg.
Rural households in Mozambique have also reported atypically low prices, which may be a barrier for households that usually use this income for the purchase of inputs for the next cropping season. Winter cropping activities in the region are proceeding well this year and are mainly limited to South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe.
Initially, there was concern about the risk of Fall Armyworm (FAW) infestations, but damage from FAW is looking unlikely. Nonetheless, during the next 2017/18 cropping season the risk of damage by the FAW on crops remains high in the region.
[The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a set of standardized tools that aims at providing a "common currency" for classifying the severity and magnitude of food insecurity.]
Source: http://fews.net/southern-africa
V. Rainfall and temperature forecast
The forecasting system is not certain on a specific direction of rainfall during mid spring; but there are strong indications that wetter conditions can be expected from late spring and early summer for the summer-rainfall areas.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal during spring. Users are encouraged to continually check updates i.e. seasonal forecasts and utilize 7 day weather forecasts for short term planning.
VII. Conclusions and Recommendations
Drought continues in the Western Cape, parts of the Northern Cape and Eastern Cape, and the seasonal forecast indicates high uncertainty on the specific direction of rainfall for mid-spring. Temperatures are anticipated to be above normal across the country during spring.
With the seasonal forecast in mind, and the current conditions, farmers are advised to continually conserve water and other resources in accordance with the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act 1983, (Act No. 43 of 1983).
Livestock must continually be kept in line with carrying capacity of the veld, and be provided with additional feed such as relevant licks. They should also be provided with enough water points on the farm as well as shelter during bad weather conditions. Veld fires have been reported in several provinces and the risk of fires remains high due to the dry veld.
Therefore maintenance of fire belts should be prioritized as well as adherence to veld fire warnings.
As temperatures are anticipated to be above normal during spring, and a few daily extreme weather warnings for heatwaves have been issued for some areas, the likelihood of heatwaves during spring increases. Measures to combat heatwaves should be in place. Farmers are encouraged to implement measures provided in the early warning information issued.
Challenges of communication facilities in most districts in the provinces inhibit both dissemination and access to information and thus undermining the effectiveness of an early warning system.
Continuous support to Early Warning Committee and National Agro-Meteorological committee members will ensure the effective dissemination of early warning information as an integral component of an effective Early Warning System in support of disaster risk reduction.
Participation in the established study groups and Fire Protection Associations among farming communities will encourage knowledge sharing, good farming practices as well as effective implementation of the disaster risk reduction measures. Reporting of disaster risk issues to the local office including diseases and pests outbreak will ensure immediate attention and controlling of incidences.
The following form part of the recommendations in the full advisory for disaster risk reduction:
- Contingency plans for drought.
- Adherence to the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act (No. 43 of 1983).
DAFF through CCDM will continue to revisit the provinces for monitoring and evaluation purposes.
For a complete advisory, visit the DAFF website www.daff.gov.za or contact D: CCDM for more information: - Tel: 012 309 5722/23, Fax: 012 309 5878.
