Normal rainfall was received over the majority of winter rainfall areas during the 2013 winter season, while much of the central and eastern parts of the country received below normal rainfall. The veld and livestock remain in poor condition in most summer rainfall areas, awaiting grass regrowth, following the dry winter. Summer rain-fed crop farmers have begun planting in areas that have received significant rainfall. The level of the major dams is above 70% in most provinces, having increased in some provinces as compared to the previous year during the same period.
The October 2014 to March 2015 Famine Early-Warning Systems Network food security outlook reported that regional availability of staple cereal in the region will be above average, following the good performance of the 2013/14 rainfall season. Domestic availability of cereal, including carry-over stocks from the 2013/14 consumption year, is expected to be sufficient to cover regional requirements. There is approximately a 66 percent chance that an El Niño will develop by the start of the 2014/2015 season. The October to December rainfall totals are expected to be near normal to above normal in most parts of the region. The January to March rainfall totals are expected to be near normal in most areas. With the current uncertainty about the evolution of the current El Niño conditions, more emphasis will be placed on downscaled national or local level seasonal forecasts.
The International Red Locust Control Organization for Central and Southern Africa (IRLCO-CSA) reported in August that the region is likely to be free of army worm outbreaks, given the current control measures, following the outbreaks in the 2012/13 rainfall season. The IRLCO-CSA also warns that Red Locust swarms and concentrations that have persisted in the Kafue Flats of Zambia; the Buzi Gorongosa and Dimba plains in Mozambique; and the Ikuu-Katavi plains, Wembere and Malagarasi Basin of Tanzania, following extensive vegetation burning, are likely to be concentrated further into dense swarms within these primary outbreak areas. In the June Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Locust Situation Update for Madagascar, it was reported that no further massive breeding is expected to occur before the rainy season that starts in October.
During the outlook period, humanitarian assistance needs are expected to increase from November to February because this period is the lean season throughout the region. Opportunities for Local and Regional Purchases (LRP) for humanitarian food commodities will improve this 2014/15 consumption year, given current national demand-supply projections, which show improved availability of tradable maize this year, especially from Zambia (the main source of LRP) and Tanzania.
During early summer, rainfall is anticipated to be above normal in some summer rainfall areas, although there is lack of skill of the forecasting models/system during this time. This therefore makes the forecast uncertain. Drier conditions are expected for mid and late summer. Maximum temperatures are anticipated to be above normal. Farmers are encouraged to check updates continually, i.e., seasonal forecasts and utilise seven-day weather forecasts for short-term planning.
With the seasonal forecasting system lacking skill for early summer, farmers are advised to plan their activities in accordance with weather conditions that usually occur in their areas during early summer. Farmers are also advised to consider short-season cultivars that are locally adapted as a precautionary measure. Towards mid-summer, rainfall is expected to be below normal. Provincial reports continue to indicate poor veld and livestock conditions in many areas and, in some provinces, veld fires have exacerbated the conditions. The risk of veld fires remains high in summer rainfall areas that have not yet received sufficient rain, therefore preventive measures for these should remain in place, i.e., maintenance of firebreaks. Farmers are advised to continually ensure that livestock is kept in balance with the carrying capacity and make provision for additional feed, including licks to give livestock sufficient nutrition.
Water and other resources should be continually conserved in accordance with the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act, 1983 (Act No. 43 of 1983). Water restrictions should also be adhered to when issued. Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail, as well as heat waves are likely to occur during summer and therefore measures to combat these should be in place. Localised flooding is also possible in summer rainfall areas; precautionary measures for these should be in place. Farmers are also advised to follow the vaccine routine and consult with the local veterinarian.
The Disaster Management Act, 2002 (Act No. 57 of 2002) urges provinces, individuals and farmers to assess and prevent or reduce the risk of disasters by using early-warning information.
For further information and media enquiries, please contact:
Steve Galane
Director: Communication Services
E-mail: SteveGAL@daff.gov.za
Mobile: 083 635 7346
